Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Western Conference: What we learned in Game 1 & what comes next

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The Audi 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs are underway! And for Round One, at least, we’re settling into a Best-of-3 grind in which we’ll see adjustments and counter-adjustments as underdogs try to pull off the upset and favorites try to hold serve and make it chalk.

With that in mind, let’s take a spin around the Western Conference and see what we saw in Game 1s.

VANCOUVER WHITECAPS FC 3-0 FC DALLAS

Game 1 in a nutshell: Here was FC Dallas’s only real attack of the night at BC Place. Sound up to hear the commentary at the end:

Yeah, Bernard Kamungo was offside. By the final whistle, they were blanked and outshout 22-0. That's not a typo.

What I’m saying is Vancouver were ridiculously good. They went into this game knowing Dallas had one area of clear advantage – in the box, with DP striker Petar Musa matched up against the makeshift center-back pairing of Ralph Priso and Belal Halbouni – and never let them even sniff it. The three goals they scored understated how good they were in attack.

After Dallas’s Decision Day win at Vancouver, in which they were up a man for about 75 minutes, Thomas Müller scoffed at the idea that they’d come into the playoffs with more confidence. “We outplayed a team with almost 80 minutes 10 versus 11,” he said, and the implication was clear: Dallas had no shot if it was 11 vs. 11.

He was right.

What to expect in Game 2

From Vancouver: Priso was so good that maybe Jesper Sørensen sticks with him in the XI? I don’t think that’ll happen – Mathias Laborda will probably come back into the lineup now that his suspension’s been served – but these are the kinds of problems Sørensen’s dealing with. He has too many guys playing too well.

That probably includes Kenji Cabrera and Ryan Gauld, who are just super-sub wingers at this point (Cabrera got the night’s third goal) despite looking like two of the best players in the league at their respective spots.

Bottom line is that the ‘Caps have been the ‘Caps against virtually all comers this year, and with Müller’s genius-level playmaking, you can’t sit deep and hope to absorb.

I have no idea how to beat them.

From Dallas: Eric Quill will surely put Logan Farrington back in the starting XI. He rolled the dice by switching to a 3-4-2-1 with Sam Sarver and Anderson Julio underneath Musa, with the idea that they could win second balls (they launched a lot of long balls at Musa’s head) and get off to the races.

But neither guy was ever tight enough to Musa to actually win those second balls, so there were never any races to be off to. What propelled Dallas down the stretch was the partnership Farrington and Musa had in working together like that, both in the box and upfield. There’s also the simple fact that Farrington is also good at winning long balls – playing as a classic 9 – which sometimes lets Musa drop in and try to win the second ball, then play one of the wingbacks into space. And they can get off to the races that way.

In theory, anyway. We’ll see.

SAN DIEGO FC 2-1 PORTLAND TIMBERS

Game 1 in a nutshell: This one wasn’t quite as one-sided as Vancouver’s steamrolling of Dallas, as SDFC outshot Portland 14-5 instead of 22-0. And Portland deserve a lot of credit for that, because a half-hour into proceedings it looked like this one could get more lopsided than what the ‘Caps did vs. FCD.

But the thing about Portland is they have Diego Chara, and while Chara’s always gotten credit first and foremost for his field coverage – which is not wrong; at his peak, no d-mid in MLS history shrunk the pitch like he did – even as a younger player that incredible engine was paired with an A+ soccer brain and passing that was crisp and decisive, if never game-breaking.

Now that he’s a wily old veteran, the legs have slowed only imperceptibly while the brain is quicker than ever. You could see him mapping San Diego’s early risk-taking, and so when there was a chance to be in the right spot to force a turnover and start a break, Chara was right on the spot:

Los Niños are never going to stop getting on the ball in these spots; this kind of deep possession that draws the defense uphill is hard-wired into their DNA. Meanwhile, Portland have shown little ability, at virtually any point in the second half of the season, to build chances of their own.

But what they have, both in Chara and a bunch of attackers who can run, is a way to turn the on-ball risks San Diego always take to their own benefit.

What to expect in Game 2

From San Diego: The point of having that deep possession is to, as stated, draw the defense uphill. Get them running away from their goal and then use your calm on the ball to play runners behind.

It’s obviously worked – Anders Dreyer had one of the greatest seasons in league history – and my guess is it’ll keep working. The only decisions that Mikey Varas has to make are whether to start Onni Valakari as a false 9 instead of Corey Baird (Luca de la Torre would then come into the XI at central midfield) and whether Chucky Lozano has been contrite enough to get back onto the pitch. The Mexican star has been out of the team for the past couple of weeks for internal disciplinary reasons (he reportedly threw a fit when he was subbed at halftime of a win at Houston in early October).

That said, San Diego’s best chances (and both goals) came from either patient final-third possession or set pieces. They’re really, really good in those phases of play, too.

From Portland: Hopefully, no red cards. That’s a good starting point.

The other point is that they need to release the wingers higher and earlier, which is how they started coming into the game in the second half and threatening to find an equalizer. San Diego are going to press the vast majority of the time they lose possession in the attacking third, and when a team presses like that, you can (if you’re smart and skilled) get behind them and (at the very least) dump the ball into the channels for someone to run down.

Once again, Chara (build the statue!) was key in these moments, not just for his ability to play out of pressure but to properly weight those balls over the top. They’ll be on once again in this one.

Also, I should say James Pantemis’s name here since, without him, it would have been a 4-0 ditch Portland were trying to dig out of. So here goes: James Pantemis.

MINNESOTA UNITED FC 0 (3) - 0 (2) SEATTLE SOUNDERS FC

Game 1 in a nutshell: Take it away, Albert Rusnák:

“The game went exactly how we prepared for it and what we trained,” Seattle’s DP No. 10 said after the loss. “This is playoffs, and away from home we created enough chances to score at least a goal. One goal could be enough, in games like tonight, to win it.”

It obviously would have been. And honestly… look, there’s got to be frustration any time you create chances like this but don’t get the winner:

So yeah, Game 1 was about the Sounders looking like the 2025 Sounders, and Dayne St. Clair just being better. That continued into the shootout, which felt like a fait accompli given St. Clair’s record in PKs.

What to expect in Game 2

From Minnesota: They went away from the 4-4-2 with double false 9s they finished the season with and back to the 5-4-1, this time with Bongi Hlongwane (usually a wingback) playing up top. And Hlongwane almost turned the game on its head, getting into the open field and being at least a little bit unlucky not to draw a PK or a red (or both) on Jackson Ragen.

But yeah, the Loons were the Loons again: they were happy to sacrifice two-thirds of possession and field position for space to counter into. When they weren’t doing that, they were hitting on long throws and set pieces.

The only real question Eric Ramsay’s pondering, I’m sure, is whether DP No. 9 Kelvin Yeboah should go from the start. Everything else – the game model, the backline, the midfield, the total comfort relying on St. Clair in the game’s biggest moments – seems written in pen.

From Seattle: True story: Seattle were actually behind on xG until Danny Musovski got in for the game’s final 20 minutes. Now, Musovski is taking a beating in certain parts of Sounders fandom for not winning them the game with those two great chances he found. But the point is that before he was out there, nobody was finding those chances in the first place.

My stance on this is that Jordan Morris is a better overall soccer player than Musovski (which he showed by flexing into the right winger position once Musovski came on and being really good), but against a packed-in backline with three center backs? Well, Musovski’s actually a better No. 9 in that situation because his off-ball movement in tight spots is more clever. Morris really only throws one move (we’re talking off-ball stuff here) at a defender; Musovski will stack two or three right on top of each other, which is why he’s an xG machine.

The other big decision Brian Schmetzer has to make is on the left wing, where Georgi Minoungou’s got to get more than 10 minutes if they’re chasing a result. Paul Rothrock simply can not beat low block defenders with the ball the way Minoungou can, and folks: I freaking guarantee that Minnesota’s coming out in a low block.

The final note: If it’s the 90th minute and the game’s headed to PKs, Andrew Thomas has got to be with the fourth official about to check in. Sounders fans will riot if he’s not, and they’d be right to.

LAFC 2-1 AUSTIN FC

Game 1 in a nutshell: We suspected Austin would come out in a 3-4-2-1 to mirror (more or less) LAFC’s shape, and they did.

We suspected LAFC would come out on the front foot to put their stamp on the game and the series, and to give their superior talent a platform for deciding things, and they did.

We suspected, after LAFC took a 1-0 lead midway through the first half, that they would run away with it. After all, Austin aren't built to chase the game, while Denis Bouanga and Son Heung-Min are vicious in tearing apart teams that have to push numbers even slightly recklessly upfield.

And… they didn’t. I want to give a ton of credit to Austin head coach Nico Estévez and his team here, because the second half of this game was excellent. He told our Andrew Wiebe (so many great sideline hits in this one) that he wanted his team to be more confident building through the midfield and more aggressive in pushing numbers higher into the attack whenever Austin got on the ball.

That, folks, was the exact story of the first 30 minutes of the second half, up to and including Austin’s second-half equalizer. Watch that sequence again and you’ll see that it’s a long spell of back-to-front possession in which they very comfortably got multiple runners into the box. Watch the 20 minutes preceding it and you’ll see that this was no outlier – by about the 48th minute, the Verde & Black were routinely cutting through LAFC’s press and getting out on the run.

They made a real game of it.

What to expect in Game 2

From LAFC: So I think part of the issue with Austin playing so comfortably from back-to-front to start the second half was that they were finally confident enough to take advantage of LAFC’s pressing shape, which was a 3-5-2 rather than the 3-4-2-1 they’ve mostly used over the past three months:

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This is why I wrote above that Austin mostly mirrored LAFC’s shape (Austin played a front three, not a front two).

Strategic refresher:

  • On a macro level, the point of mirroring is to neutralize any built-in numerical advantages a matchup of two teams in different shapes naturally produces.
  • Specifically against LAFC, the point of mirroring is to kill their ability to hit big switches to wingbacks (they didn’t hit a single one all night). If you allow them that pass, you are dead.
  • Super macro level going back 45 years to the invention of the back three: the point is to have one more center back than the opponent has forwards, which makes it easier to start your build-out sequences.

I absolutely think that the 3-5-2 makes sense for LAFC against certain teams (though it will only be so effective without a true midfield creator, great as Son and Bouanga are). But I don't think it’s coincidental that, for as long as they stayed in that shape, Austin found it pretty easy to build against them. Up to the 73rd minute of the game, the xG on the night was basically even, as was the scoreboard.

Then Steve Cherundolo finally brought Nathan Ordaz on for one of his three central midfielders and started pressing with a front three. Here's xG the rest of the way: 1.24 for the hosts (a number that included Ordaz’s nerve-wracking tap-in), and 0.16 for the visitors.

What I’m saying is that Cherundolo needs to throw a little bit more caution to the wind and get another attacker out there, one who will help Son and Bouanga on the defensive side of the ball as much as he does in attack.

From Austin: Estévez, in the postgame presser, didn’t sound like a man who was planning many adjustments for Game 2.

"We reduced their ability to create scoring opportunities really well," Estévez told the gathered press. "It is normal that they're going to create one or two per game, for sure. I think we were unlucky that the second goal, it got deflected, and then Brad [Stuver] couldn't do anything there. But I think this is the first time we play against them, when they are playing ... I think they didn't feel comfortable in the whole game. I think they weren't happy about how the game was going. And we can learn and then try to do better in the next game."

The “play better” adjustment is the most important one a team can make, and a lot of it always comes from confidence. In Austin’s case, they’ll have plenty of that after what they did in the second half – right up until LAFC changed their shape.

Estévez will need to have a little something up his sleeve for that come kickoff on Sunday night.