2023 MLS NEXT Pro Conference Finals Are Set
No. 2 New England Revolution II will host No. 3 Columbus Crew 2 in the Eastern Conference Final and No. 1 Colorado Rapids 2 will host No. 4 Austin FC II in the Western Conference Final. The East will play on Oct. 14 and the West will play on Oct. 15.
Toronto FC appoint Rubio as technical director
Longtime MLS front-office executive Sean Rubio has returned to Toronto FC as their technical director, the club announced Monday. Rubio will be responsible for managing the infrastructure and operation of TFC’s scouting department, in addition to working closely with general manager Jason Hernandez on the strategy and execution of player acquisitions across the first team and Toronto FC II (MLS NEXT Pro). Rubio spent the past four years at Austin FC, originally joining for their 2020 expansion season before becoming the club’s vice president of player personnel. At Austin, Rubio oversaw the roster management and compliance across the first team, Austin FC II and academy.
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Yesterday we looked at the teams most likely to show up out of nowhere and shock the world come playoff time. Today, we’re going to do the same. But instead of teams who might be able to put together a storybook run to MLS Cup presented by Audi, we’re going to look at teams who might be doomed to fall flat on their face.
Maybe.
Let’s be clear, I’m not expecting any of these very good and talented soccer teams to disappoint their talented, tall and likable fans. I’m just taking a moment to point out which of the MLS Cup frontrunners might have a fatal flaw or numbers that suggest they might slip up right out of the gate.
The good news for all of those top-seeded teams is the new playoff format will at least keep them from going out after just one game. We won’t have a 2021 New England situation on our hands where one slightly average performance leads to the best regular season team in MLS history disappearing after one game. If a frontrunner loses in this year’s best-of-three setup, they’ll have to be outplayed or at least equaled over multiple games.
Still, no one is truly safe. Except for FC Cincinnati. But besides them, no one is truly safe. Here are some teams that might need to be a little more prepared than others for early heartbreak.
Look.
I’m not trying to ruin anybody’s good time. Nothing I write or say will ever take away from one of the most remarkable expansion seasons of all time. St. Louis have been outstanding and are a great team. But…
No one in the West has outperformed their expected goal numbers like St. Louis. Their expected goal differential is -2.23. Their actual goal differential +17. That 19.23 difference is the eighth-highest since 2013 according to American Soccer Analysis. It’s on par with last year’s Austin team that regressed hard to the mean this season and nearly bowed out early against RSL in last year’s playoff. Their differential in expected points per game and points per game is also right in step with last year’s Austin numbers.
Then there’s the vague, narrativey, eye-test things that feel true. Mainly being Red Bulls-adjacent in style is still a little too close to Energy Drink Soccer to be successful in the playoffs. I don’t know how true that is exactly, but there’s got to be a reason New York has failed to win a title in 13 consecutive years of playoff appearances.
All that being said, the West has been incredibly weak this season. They aren’t running a gauntlet here. If the standings stayed as is after Decision Day then St. Louis would be heavy favorites against not-so-good San Jose or Dallas. The Quakes or Dallas aren’t going have a good time in front of a wild CITYPARK crowd. But what if it ends up being a hot Portland side? Or a Minnesota or SKC team with either Bebelo Reynoso or Alan Pulido? That scenario feels a little more dangerous. Even in this new format. St. Louis would still be favorites. But it would be fair to enter that matchup a bit concerned.
Then again, St. Louis have the best keeper in the league, Roman Burki. If you’re looking for a direct line to team overperformance and St. Louis, Burki is it. He should continue to keep St. Louis in games in the postseason. That could be more than enough.
Again, nothing I say here is going to take away from an outstanding season. The Lions have reached 60 points for the first time in club history and are going to finish with the second-best record in MLS. They’ve been phenomenal for the last few months. Like, best team in the league kind of phenomenal. The only team who can claim a remotely similar record over the final half of the season is FC Cincinnati. Depending on when you start measuring recent MLS performance, the Lions tend to have the edge in points per game.
That being said…
Folks, Orlando are the only team luckier than St. Louis this year when it comes to measuring points versus expected points. It’s about 0.4 point difference per game. The same difference as last year’s Austin side. Orlando’s expected goals numbers point to a team that typically finishes closer to 48 points rather than 60 points.
Now, to their credit, that gets better if you look at the back half of their season instead of the entire year going all the way back to February. But only slightly so. They’ve earned 2.00 points per game over their last 17 games. Their expected points rate in that span is 1.5. That puts them closer to a 51-point team on average.
So. Yeah. Good team. Maybe not a truly great team. And in the East, where they’ll either be facing Nashville or Atlanta in the playoffs, they’re going to have their hands full. Those teams aren’t quite as good overall, but Orlando wouldn’t have the best player on the field in either of those matchups. I’m not going to pick against them anytime soon. But I can understand why you might be inclined to.
I don’t have a great reason here. They’ve been one of the best teams in the league by any measure. It’s more the weird tendency to drop points late that’s plagued the team across two seasons that has me concerned. They’ve dropped 10 points in the 90th minute or later this season and lacking an ability to close out games isn’t ideal for the playoffs. I’m betting they’ll be fine. But they could be one of the top four teams in danger if their defensive struggles become a noticeable issue against one of the better teams in MLS. That timeline feels pretty plausible. Of course, they still technically have to earn a top-four spot first.
I’ll throw them in with the Crew in the “vibes-based assessments” group. Something has just felt off for most of the year despite solid underlying numbers and a decent point total. Raul Ruidiaz can’t stay healthy and Seattle can’t consistently find the back of the net because of that. Just four teams in the West have scored fewer goals. They aren’t going to allow chances, but they aren’t going to score much either. The team that lost a playoff game to a team that didn’t take a shot should be well aware of the kinds of issues a middling attack can cause even if the defense is stout.
Before last week, LAFC had just two wins in nine regular season games. They took six points from two games last week, but it coincided with Dénis Bouanga scoring five times. What if they’re Bouanga or bust? And what if Bouanga doesn’t have his A-game from the jump?
- Austin FC are putting their trust in Josh Wolff for the 2024 season.
- Matt Doyle looked at what the 2023 MLS season meant for Austin FC.
- Jonathan Sigal focused on one big question for teams out of Audi 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs.
- Take a look at the 2023/24 offseason calendar.
- Charles Boehm picked out the young players who most impressed in Matchdays 36 and 37.
- Larry Henry Jr. took a closer look at New England Revolution II's road to the Eastern Conference Final.
- Power Rankings.
Good luck out there. Get settled in a new place.
