Chicago sign USMNT midfielder Acosta
Chicago Fire have completed a blockbuster move in free agency, announcing Tuesday they've acquired midfielder Kellyn Acosta. An MLS Cup champion in 2022, Acosta has been one of the league's consistent center-mids of the past decade with 18g/25a in 252 matches spanning FC Dallas, Colorado Rapids and, most recently, LAFC.
Charlotte sign French midfielder Diani
Charlotte FC have acquired midfielder Djibril Diani from Ligue 2 side SM Caen. The 26-year-old former French youth international is under contract through the 2025 MLS season with an option for 2026. He occupies an international roster slot.
Portland midfielder Loría out with knee injury
Portland Timbers midfielder Marvin Loría is out long-term. The 26-year-old Costa Rican international is expected to miss between four and five months after he underwent a successful Anterolateral Ligament reconstruction and meniscectomy of his left knee. Loría's setback is Portland's second long-term injury of preseason camp after left back Claudio Bravo had a right knee operation. Bravo is expected back by late April.
Vancouver head to Tigres tonight
Vancouver Whitecaps FC will decide their Concacaf Champions Cup fate Wednesday night at Liga MX titans Tigres UANL in the return leg of their Round One series. Vancouver have their work cut out for them at the Estadio Universitario in Leg 2, after conceding late and settling for a 1-1 draw at home in last week's opening match. Kickoff is set for 8 pm ET on FS2. For more info on how to watch, head here.
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We’re previewing all 29 teams over 10 days in as Daily Kickoff a style as we can.
Yesterday we checked in on D.C. United, New York City FC and Real Salt Lake. Today, FC Cincinnati and St. Louis CITY SC.
Yes, we know the rosters aren’t finalized yet. The rosters are never finalized.
2023 By The Numbers (per American Soccer Analysis)
They were good at soccer.
Cincy led the league in expected goals scored, expected goal differential and expected points. Nothing about their run to the Supporters’ Shield could be classified as a fluke.
The same goes for Luciano Acosta’s MVP run. He overperformed his xG a little bit, but he still finished in the 91st percentile non-penalty xG+xA and the 99th percentile in shot-creating actions. If you’re looking for some kind of major flaw in last year’s team, you aren’t going to find it. You can’t help but wonder what the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs edition of Hell is Real would have been like with Matt Miazga in Cincy’s back three.
2024 DKO Range Prediction
Between first and sixth in the Eastern Conference.
The odds Cincy don’t finish in a home playoff spot seem low. However, you can lay out a straightforward path for this team to come up short. First and foremost, it’s MLS. It’s hard to win consistently by design. Following up a Supporters’ Shield-winning season with another Shield-caliber season doesn’t happen. There hasn’t been a back-to-back Shield winner since 2011. Since the 2017 expansion to 22 teams, Shield winners have, on average, picked up 48 points and finished in 11th place in the overall standings the following season. Keeping good teams together is tough. Surviving extra games in Concacaf is tough.
It’s also tough to survive major changes. Striker Brandon Vazquez is gone. He didn’t match the highs of his 2022 season in 2023, but Cincy are going to have a tough time replacing his value. Center back Yerson Mosquera is also gone. He’s been replaced by Miles Robinson, but matching Mosquera’s impact will be difficult, even with a player like Robinson. And, as of now, Cincy don’t have a clear starter at right wingback. Those question marks, plus a few extra games in Concacaf Champions Cup, are the kind of things that have derailed past Shield winners.
Ok, does everyone feel like we’ve effectively “both sides-ed” this thing to death yet? Because the much more likely outcome is the obvious one. This roster is still outstanding, Vazquez underwhelmed last season, Robinson should be something close to a like-for-like to Mosquera and there’s no real reason to be concerned about a low-leverage position like right wingback. Now, if Alvaro Barreal leaves, then we can talk about Cincy taking a huge step back. Right now though, Barreal is still here and the Garys are primed for big things yet again in 2024. Maybe not Shield-caliber things, but they’re not aiming for the Shield. This year is all about earning a Cup of any kind before their championship window closes.
Player of the People
Aaron Boupendza represents all of us who have wanted to yell “WILD CARD” and then jump out of the back of a speeding van after cutting said van’s brakes.
This could all go pretty well if…
As long as Acosta is healthy this is going to be fine. If Robinson can replace Mosquera and Corey Baird can do enough to mitigate losing Vazquez, this is going to be great. If Boupendza lives up to his potential, this could be a team capable of breaking our long streak without a back-to-back Shield winner.
2023 By The Numbers (per American Soccer Analysis)
The 2022 Austin FC Memorial Overperformance Award went to St. Louis in 2023. Their +16 goal differential checked in at 18.58 goals better than their expected goal differential. That was the highest mark in the league and the seventh highest in ASA’s database, which goes back to 2013. It’s slightly less than 2022 Austin, but it’s also still a lot of overperformance.
The good news is they didn’t lead the league in overperforming their expected point total. That accomplishment is Orlando’s. St. Louis only outperformed their expected point total by about 11 points. They were essentially a 45-point caliber side instead of a 56-point caliber side over the full season. That’s at least enough to get you a playoff spot in the West.
2024 DKO Range Prediction
Between fourth and 13th in the Western Conference.
Throw St. Louis in with the rest of a Western Conference group that could finish in any order without surprising anyone. You don’t have to expect a major regression for this team, but you definitely shouldn’t expect them to take a major step forward from 2023. It’s essentially the same roster plus two new fullbacks and minus Jared Stroud. At least as of now. They do have a DP spot open that could push them toward their ceiling.
Player of the People
We’ll go with Eduard Löwen. We’ve all been underrated a few times in our lives, right? Löwen didn’t get enough credit for a relatively outstanding 2023.
This could all go pretty well if…
The Diet Red Bulls game model comes with the same high floor as Red Bulls Classic, Roman Bürki puts together another Goalkeeper of the Year-caliber season and the new DP elevates this group when he arrives. That’s not all that implausible, right?
Nashville sign defender Kallman: Nashville SC have signed free-agent defender Brent Kallman through the 2024 MLS season. While at Minnesota United FC for the past six seasons, the center back played in 114 league matches.
Portland sign Mosquera to contract extension: The Portland Timbers have signed defender Juan Mosquera to a contract extension through the 2027 MLS season with an option for 2028. The 21-year-old Colombian international joined Portland in July 2022 from Independiente Medellín in his home country. Ever since, the right back has produced 2g/6a in 32 matches.
USMNT to face Colombia for 2024 Copa América prep: The US men’s national team will host Colombia on June 8 as a 2024 Copa América tune-up match. The international friendly will be contested at FedExField in the Washington, D.C., area. Kickoff is set for 5:37 pm ET (TNT, Telemundo, Universo, Max and Peacock).
Charlotte transfer Corujo to Čukarički: Charlotte FC have transferred center back Guzmán Corujo to Serbian top-flight side FK Čukarički. The 27-year-old Uruguayan defender joined Charlotte ahead of their inaugural 2022 MLS season, notching 1g/0a in 31 games (30 starts). An ACL injury limited him to just under 400 minutes last season.
- Matt Doyle picked out every Western Conference team's breakout player candidate for 2024.
- Jonathan Sigal looked at 10 MLS players who will feel like new signings in 2024.
- Duncan McGuire rejoined Orlando and said the Blackburn Rovers saga is "in the past."
- FC Dallas have entered a talent development partnership with Benfica.
Good luck out there. Keep getting bigger.
