US Open Cup returns for Round of 32 action
The 2023 US Open Cup continues with Round of 32 games across Tuesday (May 9) and Wednesday (May 10) evenings, featuring 24 Major League Soccer teams competing alongside lower-division opposition. Find out how to watch and stream this week’s games.
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Can’t say I expected the guillotine to fall once, let alone twice on Monday morning. The week began with Gerhard Struber out in New York and Chicago pulling the lever on Ezra Hendrickson shortly after.
Eleven weeks into the season, the Red Bulls have one win in 11 games. The Fire have two wins in 10 games. Both are sitting at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Little is going well. But will parting ways with their managers really change that? Until very recently, the answer would have been “Of course! It must be done to save the season!” We should note though, a bunch of really smart people have started to look into these things more and more, and, well… it might be time to unlearn some basic building blocks of sports fandom.
The more very smart people who are not me research the effect of managers in soccer (and head coaches across sports), the more they’re learning the effect is far smaller than what you’ve probably been told your whole life. The Athletic’s John Muller just so happened to post an article on this exact thing Sunday morning (did he know???) and the conclusion, once again, is managers matter very little compared to how much a club spends, which of course is directly related to the quality of players a club signs.
It’s fair to wonder if that’s different in MLS. There are still gaps in spending between the biggest and smallest clubs, but not nearly in the way you see in the sport’s biggest leagues. The salary cap limits those kinds of disparities, although DPs and U22s have helped increase the distance between clubs willing to spend and those who don’t. Even still, marginal differences (like whether a team is at home or on the road) seem to have a greater effect in MLS than anywhere else.
So maybe there is something to managers mattering just a little more here. Then again, there are teams in MLS where changing managers seems to matter very little. Like… uh… New York and Chicago. Quick example in New York: The 2018 New York Red Bulls team averaged 2.00 points per game through July 6 of that season (16 games). After July 6 they averaged 2.17 points per game (18 games) on their way to winning the Supporters’ Shield. On July 6 the Red Bulls changed managers, switching from Jesse Marsch to Chris Armas. Did it matter who was in charge and Armas outcoached Marsch? Or did the Red Bulls simply have Bradley Wright-Phillips, Tyler Adams, Aaron Long and a handful of other good-to-very-good players?
Ok, yeah, that’s a short-term and cherry-picked example. So let’s look at a long-term situation in Chicago. With Hendrickson out, they’ve gone through six full-time managers since 2010. In that time, they’ve made the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs twice. Is it more likely that all of those folks are bad at “managing” or that Chicago haven’t had a roster good enough to compete? Former Fire manager Veljko Paunović seems to be doing just fine at Chivas in Liga MX right now. They finished in third place this year. Did he suddenly become a better manager? Or did he have the right roster and catch a few breaks? The same could be asked about his successor in Chicago, Raphaël Wicky, who just won the Swiss Super League with BSC Young Boys.
Ok, yeah, another cherry-picked example. For me though, the more I think about this, the more I realize there’s no end to how many examples I can find. I mean, did Josh Wolff suddenly get bad at this in 2023 or did Austin lose a few center backs and regress to the mean? I could do this for a long time. Just whole warehouses full of cherries.
All that to say, I don’t think these moves are what’s going to make either team better on the field. Although, it’s fair to point out that moving on from a manager who has lost the locker room and fanbase is generally the right call. If we’re saying it doesn’t matter who’s in charge, you might as well have someone the team appreciates.
It feels…entirely plausible locker-room dynamics suffered in recent weeks. At the very least, Red Bulls fans seemed ready to move on. The choice makes plenty of sense through that lens.
On the field though, it’s not like New York have been horrifically bad. In fact, the underlying numbers like expected goal differential have them as the best (and unluckiest) team in the East. Don’t be surprised at all if they start grabbing points. That’s not a new manager bounce, that’s just regressing to the mean.
Meanwhile, in Chicago, I’d be surprised if we learned Hendrickson lost the locker room. From afar, he seems as well-liked and respected a manager as they come. Chicago’s roster has seemed to be… well, about what you’d expect from a team that’s made the playoffs twice in the last 12 years. Exchanging Henderson for another manager doesn’t change that. Unless there’s something critical we don’t know, I’d call him unfairly and rashly scapegoated in this instance.
No matter what, the MLS landscape experienced a major shift in the span of a couple of hours yesterday. Two clubs in major markets may be looking for new leaders to fill the most outward-facing role on the team. That will change how fans will interface with each club in varying ways. That’s important. Aside from that, I’m not sure either team’s fortunes on the field have really changed.
Nashville SC's Mukhtar named Player of the Matchday: Nashville SC’s Hany Mukhtar has been named Player of the Matchday presented by Continental Tire for Matchday 11 of the 2023 MLS season, powered by a hat-trick performance in Saturday’s 3-0 home win over Chicago Fire FC. Mukhtar recorded his third career MLS hat trick in the Eastern Conference showdown at GEODIS Park, scoring twice from the penalty spot and once from open play. Now, the German native’s 11 goal contributions (six goals, five assists) are tied for the most in MLS this season.
- Jaime Uribarri explained why Chicago Fire FC moved on from Ezra Hendrickson and what's next.
- The Red Bulls are seeking "more clarity" with Gerhard Struber’s exit.
- Charles Boehm picked out the best young-player performers from MLS Matchday 11.
- Here’s your Team of the Matchday presented by Audi for Matchday 11.
- Voting is now open for AT&T 5G Goal of the Matchday.
Good luck out there. Give good gifts.
