Wild Card round tomorrow
In the Eastern Conference, the eighth-seeded New York Red Bulls host ninth-seeded Charlotte FC at 7:30 pm ET on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV. Out West, eighth-seeded Sporting Kansas City host the ninth-seeded San Jose Earthquakes at 9:30 pm ET on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV. Loser goes home. Winner moves on.
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It’s Playoff Eve. To celebrate, we’re going to do something dumb. We’re going to make our playoff picks public. I know, I know, I’m just providing ammo for social media managers across the league. But that’s the risk you take when you choose to blog. The Circle of Content has never been about kindness. Besides, I’m running hot. Some kind (?) soul calculated how many total spots each MLSsoccer.com preseason prediction maker missed by with their projections. I only missed by…….[checking].....105 spots. Hang the banner.
To be fair to me, that ended up as the fourth-best total in the league. I earned a home playoff spot. I’m feeling bold. And you can feel bold too by joining The Daily Kickoff’s Audi 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs Bracket Challenge group. Just click the link here and compete against me and fellow kickoff readers for prizes to be named later if I remember!
BEFORE YOU CLICK THAT LINK THOUGH! WAIT! THERE’S A TWIST!
What’s beautiful here is there’s no real pressure. Experienced Kickoff readers will know the only thing we know in MLS is we know nothing. In keeping with the fact we know nothing, it’s time to lean into the bit…
THE WINNER OF THE DAILY KICKOFF BRACKET CHALLENGE WILL BE THE BRACKET WITH THE FEWEST TOTAL POINTS.
That’s right. You’ve got to pick in reverse. How confident are you a dark horse won’t go on a run? Do you really think there’s no chance that Round One upset is going to happen? If you’ve ever watched any MLS game ever, the answer should be “Oh gosh, oh no, wait, I’m having a panic attack now.”
Good luck to everyone involved. Or…uh…bad luck? Anyway, here are my reverse picks.
(1) St. Louis vs. (8/9) Wild Card Winner
Reverse Pick: (8/9) Wild Card Winner
We don’t know who St. Louis will play yet. And maybe it would be beneficial to wait until we had a better idea of their opponent. But we aren’t going to overthink this. St. Louis should take care of business in theory. Although I did write multiple times over the last couple of days about Sporting KC totally have it in them to pull off the upset here… ok, yep, I already have a ton of anxiety about this, isn’t this fun?!
(4) Houston Dynamo FC vs. (5) Real Salt Lake
Reverse Pick: (5) Houston Dynamo FC
No confirmation on Chicho Arango’s status or how much he’ll be able to play if he’s available yet. RSL can do it without him. But I’m not overthinking this (any more than I already am).
(3) LAFC vs. (6) Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Reverse Pick: (3) LAFC
Stay with me here. Yes, I know this is probably the single dumbest possible reverse pick. There’s a good argument LAFC are the most likely team to make an MLS Cup run out of the West. But, what you don’t know is I originally picked everything chalk in Round One and that stressed me out so I had to go back and pick an upset. Somehow, this is the one I settled on.
It’s not about LAFC, it’s about Vancouver having enough pieces to get hot in attack and make this series totally miserable for LAFC. If Brian White and Ryan Gauld are on a heater and Dénis Bouanga goes cold, then the ‘Caps could have the upper hand. Is that likely? No. Is that possible? Yes. And I’ve got to gain an upper hand in this group somehow.
(2) Seattle Sounders vs. (7) FC Dallas
Reverse Pick: (7) FC Dallas
I’ve got to admit something. In my normal bracket I have Seattle in MLS Cup. I maybe even have them winning it. There are Last Dance vibes happening here. At least in my head. And in my world where the Sounders face a wholly underwhelming Dallas side then go up against Vancouver, it’s very easy to imagine Seattle in the Conference Final. At that point, I’m assuming muscle memory will kick in.
(1) FC Cincinnati vs. (8/9) Wild Card Winner
Reverse Pick: (8/9) Wild Card Winner
There’s a clear favorite in the East. That didn’t stop me from being genuinely worried about the Red Bulls being good enough defensively and chaotic enough in general to pull off a wild upset here though.
(4) Philadelphia Union vs. (5) New England Revolution
Reverse Pick: (5) New England Revolution
I have almost no confidence in the Revs right now. Which means they’ll almost definitely get hot and have Carles Gil and Tomás Chancalay go insane for a month as they make me look like an idiot for thinking they don’t have the juice to get past Round One.
(3) Columbus Crew vs. (6) Atlanta United
Reverse Pick: (6) Atlanta United
These might be the two best-attacking teams in the league. There’s a ton of firepower here. And, to be honest, Atlanta probably have the advantage there. What they don’t have is a consistent defense. I mean, Columbus don’t either, but Atlanta’s have been even worse. I just don’t think the Five Stripes can avoid mistakes the way championship-caliber teams tend to do in this competition. Still, that attack makes picking against an Atlanta run terrifying.
(2) Orlando City vs. (7) Nashville SC
Reverse Pick: (7) Nashville SC
Speaking of terrifying…
Nashville are so good defensively that picking against them to make a run in a knockout tournament is a dangerous idea. They made it to the Leagues Cup final this year for a reason. But since then, they’ve been one of the worst attacking teams in the league. Like, genuinely bad and not in the normal Nashville kind of way. Hany Mukhtar went cold and Sam Surridge hasn’t had the kind of impact they’d hoped for yet. Until they prove otherwise, it’s tough to pick them to get it together in attack.
(5) Real Salt Lake vs. (8/9) Wild Card Winner
Reverse Pick: (8/9) Wild Card Winner
Even if Sporting KC pull off the upset against St. Louis, I’d guess their run comes to an end here against Houston or an RSL team with a mostly healthy Chicho Arango. Then again, they’d have a ton of momentum after Round One. Maybe I should think about this more…
(3) LAFC vs. (7) FC Dallas
Reverse Pick: (7) FC Dallas
My doubt in LAFC can only go so far. My doubt in FC Dallas can go much further. They’re a super likable team, but I’m just not convinced they have the juice this year. Sorry, y’all.
(5) New England Revolution vs. (8/9) Wild Card Winner
Reverse Pick: (5) New England Revolution
I’m telling y’all, I’m actually scared of the Red Bulls if they advance. They were among the best teams in the league all year when it comes to the underlying numbers, largely because of an outstanding defense. That can be all it takes to advance in a knockout tournament. And even if they don’t, I’m guessing Cincy take care of business against New England, anyway.
(6) Atlanta United vs. (7) Nashville SC
Reverse Pick: (6) Atlanta United
This is by far the hardest part of the bracket to work through. But picking against Nashville in a knockout tournament for too long feels like bad practice. Of course, so does picking against an Atlanta team with an absurd amount of firepower. I hate all of this. But I’m leaning toward the high-floor team instead of the high-ceiling teams. Knockout rounds aren’t about who’s better, they’re about who can limit mistakes.
(7) FC DALLAS VS. (8/9) WILD CARD WINNER
Reverse Pick: (7) FC Dallas
If SKC make it this far, I refuse to count them out. If FC Dallas make it this far, I’m going to assume some penalty shootouts were won. It’s all plausible. But I know which way the vibes are blowing.
(5) New England Revolution vs. (6) Atlanta United
Reverse Pick: (5) New England Revolution
Same thing here. If Atlanta make it this far, I’m assuming they’re so incredibly on fire in attack that they’re going to be impossible to stop. I just can’t see the path with this version of New England. Even if I am terrified Carles Gil is hanging this up in his locker right now and preparing to put in the greatest postseason of all time just to spite the haters.
(5) New England Revolution vs. (7) FC Dallas
Reverse Pick: (7) FC Dallas
This would be one road game too many for Dallas. Congrats (?) to New England.
… All of this is going to come back to bite me, isn’t it?
Lodeiro likely in final season with Seattle: Nicolas Lodeiro’s legendary Seattle Sounders FC career appears to be winding down. The Uruguayan No. 10, who’s out of contract after the 2023 MLS season, told Sounder At Heart reporter Niko Moreno he’s not received a new offer and “as I’m concerned now, I’m just not going to get one.” Lodeiro, after Seattle’s 2-0 win at St. Louis CITY SC on Decision Day, posted on his Instagram story that it was his final regular-season game with the club.
Sporting Kansas City's Russell named Player of the Matchday: Sporting Kansas City forward Johnny Russell came up clutch during Decision Day, He’s been rewarded with MLS Player of the Matchday presented by Continental Tire honors for Matchday 38.
Atlanta United's Almada fined after Decision Day red card: The MLS Disciplinary Committee has fined Atlanta United midfielder Thiago Almada an undisclosed amount for failing to leave the field in a timely manner in the 51st minute against FC Cincinnati on October 21. Almada will miss the first game of Atlanta’s Round One matchup against Columbus.
- Matt Doyle’s world-famous playoff tiers column is out.
- Charles Boehm looked at how a culture is taking root at San Diego FC.
- Voting for AT&T 5G Goal of the Matchday for MLS Matchday 38 is now open.
- Here’s your Decision Day Team of the Matchday.
- Take a look at every MLS team's top goalscorer in the 2023 season.
- Charles Boehm looked at which Young Players were Decision Day heroes.
Good luck out there. Start strong.
