Your Tuesday Kickoff: Can these playoff stragglers make a deep MLS Cup run?

Minnesota United's Pukki named Player of the Matchday

Teemu Pukki's season-saving, four-goal outburst for Minnesota United FC in Matchday 37 has earned the Finnish striker MLS Player of the Matchday presented by Continental Tire honors.

Sign up for The Daily Kickoff in your inbox! The Daily Kickoff is more than an article – it can be delivered to your email account as well.

Probably no one. 

Let’s be real, the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs don’t really lend themselves to a non-elite team winning it all. I mean, let’s review right quick. 

Last year’s MLS Cup went to an LAFC team bringing Gareth freaking Bale off the bench. 2021 NYCFC was led by Taty Castellanos and a number of outstanding players across the roster. 2020 Columbus had Lucas Zelarayán ready to turn into the best player in the league at a moment’s notice. 2019 Seattle had the core that would eventually turn into the 2021 CCL-winning side. 2018 Atlanta featured Landon Donovan MLS MVP Josef Martínez and Miguel Almirón. 2017 Toronto had Sebastian Giovinco, Jozy Altidore and Michael Bradley. 2016 Seattle…….

Ok, look, nearly 95% of the time you need to be elite in some way and have a player or two on your side who can turn even the most hotly-contested playoff matchup on its head in an instant. A number of teams set to potentially enter this post-season are neither elite nor in possession of an elite matchwinner. But that doesn’t mean we can discredit them all entirely. Some have a better chance than others at pulling off a miracle run, though.

I know, I know. They aren’t even in the playoffs yet and there’s still a chance they miss out entirely. I know they don’t have Lewis Morgan available. But per American Soccer Analysis, the Red Bulls are fifth in MLS in expected goal differential on the season. They’re fifth in expected points. They’re second in expected goals allowed. For all their lack of quality up front, their pressing and defensive ability has been top-tier this year. They just don’t allow chances. 

Now, when someone does break through the press, the chance they normally give up is pretty high-probability. Honestly, I think that’s probably one of the reasons they’ve gone 13 playoff-filled years without an MLS Cup. But it’s not hard to imagine them getting into the playoffs and catching a few breaks along the way. They’re definitely due for a few. There’s a 16-goal delta between their actual goal differential compared to their expected goal differential. That makes them the ninth-most unlucky team in MLS since 2013. The difference between their actual points earned and expected points earned has them as the fifth-most unlucky team in that same span.

The math says it could happen. The timeline we’re on probably has different plans, especially considering how good the East is. But if anyone left in the race for a Wild Card spot is going to pull this off, it’s New York.

Kind of a weird moment for the Loons. Adrian Heath is out and… they’re still alive for a playoff spot heading into Decision Day? Alright then.

All the Loons need to do to get in is beat Sporting KC and hope one of the three teams ahead of them faceplant on the final day of the season. It’s totally possible. And in a Western Conference where it kind of feels like every team is an underdog in some way, it's not far-fetched to imagine a lower seed making their way through.

It’s especially easy to imagine the Loons being that team if they make it in. We saw in 2020 all it really takes for them to advance is for Bebelo Reynoso to turn into the best player in the league at the right time. He’s still got that in him. And he has a little help in attack thanks to Bongokuhle Hlongwane and (maybe?) Teemu Pukki.

Plus, there’s the added bonus of Minnesota being on the road for the entirety of the playoffs. Normally that would be a negative, but the Loons were atrocious at home this season while having one of the best road records in the league. Only three teams won more on the road than Minnesota.

Ok, a lot of what I just said for Minnesota can be said for Sporting. Replace Bebelo Reynoso with Alan Pulido and you get a pretty good idea of why SKC can be a threat in the playoffs. The biggest problem, though, is who they’d be matched up with if they do make it into a Wild Card spot and advance to the first round. St. Louis CITY SC will be waiting with open arms, eager to beat up on a team they pummeled 9-3 on aggregate this season.

Still, SKC have been a different team with a healthy Pulido. They have enough firepower to surprise some folks. They probably have too many fatal flaws to make a deep run, but it wouldn’t be totally shocking to see them play spoiler.

I’ll throw in one more team that isn’t even likely to be in the playoffs. Just for fun. 

NYCFC have had decent underlying numbers all season and still have plenty of talent across their roster. Frankly, it’s been extremely weird to see them struggle with the players they have. Then again, they’ve been the second-youngest team on average this season. Only the Red Bulls have gotten more consistent playing time from young players. Thing is, it feels like NYCFC’s entire attack is made out of kids at times. It’s at least part of the reason they’ve struggled to be consistent. 

Still, talent is talent. And Mounsef Bakrar seems to be a fit at striker for a team that’s desperately needed one. It’s not likely. But it is possible. Kind of. Look, remember when we said it’s really hard to win MLS Cup?

15 MLS players at 2024 Summer Olympics training camp: As Team USA formally begins preparations for the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, head coach Marko Mitrović has named a 23-player roster for training camp in Phoenix, Arizona that will include friendlies against Mexico (Oct. 11) and Japan (Oct. 17) at Phoenix Rising Stadium.

• Matt Doyle looked at what the 2023 MLS season meant for Inter Miami CF, D.C. United, and the LA Galaxy.
• Here’s your Team of the Matchday presented by Audi.
• Take a look at the 2023 MLS Golden Boot presented by Audi tracker.
• The conference finals for MLS NEXT Pro are set.
• Voting for AT&T 5G Goal of the Matchday for MLS Matchday 37 is now open.

Good luck out there. Find a place to make an impact.