Colorado Rapids name Fran Taylor as sporting director
The Colorado Rapids have named Fran Taylor as their sporting director. Taylor joined the Rapids in 2018 after spending eight years as VP of analytics at StatDNA, a software development and analytics company acquired by Arsenal Football Group in 2013. He has played a key part in developing the Rapids’ roster construction and player recruitment strategy through stats-driven insights and enhanced scouting processes and networks.
USMNT, Mexico draw in Allstate Continental Clásico
Jesús Ferreira struck for an 81st-minute equalizer, canceling out a Uriel Antuna goal gift-wrapped by a defensive miscue as the US men’s national team and Mexico played to a 1-1 draw in the inaugural Allstate Continental Clásico Wednesday evening at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
MLS joins in formation of Coalition for Responsible Sports Betting Advertising
Major League Soccer has joined a group of major sports leagues and media entities in the formation of the Coalition for Responsible Sports Betting Advertising, it was announced Wednesday in a joint statement. MLS joins the National Football League, Major League Baseball, Major League Soccer, NASCAR, National Basketball Association, Women's National Basketball Association, National Hockey League, NBCUniversal, and FOX in establishing the coalition, which is a voluntary association with the goal of ensuring a responsible approach to sports betting advertising.
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Yesterday we took a quick look at the underlying numbers behind team-wide performances this season. Basically we learned that St. Louis might not win the Supporters’ Shield, LA and SKC might not win the wooden spoon and then pretty much everyone else besides Vancouver and New York ended up about where you expected. It’s still early in the year and there hasn’t been a ton of separation yet in the standings and with the expected goals (xG) numbers.
But what about at an individual level? If a player’s xG is high it essentially means they’re taking more shots from more positions where they’re more likely to score. If a player’s expected assists (xA) total is high, they’re creating more chances where their teammates are in positions more likely to score. We can use these numbers to learn a lot about who’s truly producing in attack. For example…
I wrote earlier this week about Espinoza’s seven-goal,14-assist 2022 season, and his already impressive five-goal, two-assist 2023. I didn’t even realize I should have been talking about him as the most consistent chance finder and creator in the league so far.
Per American Soccer Analysis, the San Jose winger leads MLS in xG+xA. He’s creating at an elite level, placing third in MLS in xA, while finding scoring chances for himself at the kind of consistent clip that suggests his seven goal contributions on the season aren’t the product of lucky breaks. He’s very likely going to keep producing. And with the Quakes looking like an Audi MLS Cup Playoff team, this should probably be the year we pay a little more attention to a player that’s become one of the best wingers in the league.
You might have been surprised to hear yesterday that Vancouver are third in the league in expected points, a measure of how many points teams will have on average given the chances they’ve created. Most folks understandably wouldn’t put them on the same plane of existence with Seattle and LAFC, and it’s highly likely they won’t be in the end. So, what gives?
Well, it doesn’t explain all of it, but Julian Gressel has been an elite chance creator while Brian White has been an elite chance finder. White is second in the league in xG behind Jordan Morris. You’ll probably notice though that Morris has eight goals and White only has two. And to that I’ll say, soccer is hard and Morris has been excellent at finding ultra-high probability chances and putting them home to the tune of eight goals on 16 shots and 4.93 xG. White, obviously, hasn’t had the same results despite finding more chances. In fact, he’s underperforming his xG by more than anyone else in the league.
The good news for the 'Caps and White though is that eventually he’ll regress back to the mean in the best way if he keeps finding opportunities to score from quality positions. And it helps to have Gressel to keep creating those chances. He’s second in the league in expected assists, barely behind Thiago Almada. Unsurprisingly, Almada is first in the league in total assists and Gressel is tied for second with Seattle’s Léo Chú. If White puts away Gressel passes the way Morris has for Chú – four goals on six key passes, if you were wondering – Gressel’s numbers will skyrocket.
Although, I should note, Ryan Gauld is actually the player who’s been most hard done by White’s bad luck. Gauld is last in the league in assists minus expected assists. If things just start to level out for White, Gauld and Gressel, in theory, the Whitecaps will start collecting points.
No one has outperformed their expected goals numbers like Bouanga so far this year. Considering how he’s scored his goals, that probably doesn’t come as a surprise. He’s three goals better than the chances he’s found suggest he should be. That’s the model that decides xG’s way of saying “Actually, scoring a hilariously impressive volley from just inside the 18 is really hard and you can’t expect players to keep doing that.”
Normally, that’s true. Bouanga is one of those guys that kind of makes you wonder though. What if his highlight reel is a Kendall Roy “all bangers all the time” playlist because he’s just better than everyone else at this? I guess we’ll find out. And the answer will almost certainly be more in line with his xG by the end of the year. But it’s fun to dream, right? I’ve always said math is for dreamers.
LA Galaxy's Boyd wins Goal of the Matchday: LA Galaxy winger Tyler Boyd (60.1%) has topped the latest round of voting by a significant margin, ensuring his first-ever MLS goal has an award attached to it. Boyd’s blistering right-footed effort occurred in a 3-2 El Trafico loss to crosstown rival LAFC, rocketing in from 36.1 yards out to beat goalkeeper John McCarthy. The outcome leaves Portland Timbers forward Dairon Asprilla (34.1%) in second place. Just a stunning upset.
- Former D.C. United player Kevin Paredes is riding a "never-give-up mindset" as he finds his way at Wolfsburg.
- Charles Boehm wrote about a USMNT team that reached five games unbeaten versus Mexico as a Nations League test looms.
- Ben Wright has your USMNT Player Ratings.
Good luck out there. Don’t hesitate to appreciate what you’re seeing.
