MLS elevates commitment to Juneteenth
MLS announced on Wednesday the 2023 edition of its annual Juneteenth initiative: “The Seeds We Plant. The Flowers We Share,” inspired by the art of Black artist Gianni Lee. Check out all the details here.
Inter Miami winger Jean suffers ACL injury
Inter Miami CF winger Corentin Jean He is expected to miss the remainder of the 2023 MLS season. Jean got injured during the first half of Miami’s Matchday 18 contest at the New England Revolution, a 3-1 defeat last Saturday.
Nations League Semifinals tonight
Panama play Canada at 7 pm ET then the USMNT take on El Tri at 10 pm ET. See the full schedule here.
Houston bests LAFC for second-straight game
Whoooooo boy. Houston took down LAFC 1-0 last night thanks to a first-half goal from Micael. That’s back-to-back wins over LAFC for Houston. Aggregate score here was 5-0 Houston. The Dynamo are four points above the Audi MLS Cup Playoff line.
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Not every team is halfway through the season but enough are halfway to the end that I’m comfortable with going ahead and calling this the midway point. What better time to talk about the teams set to take a big (or at least better) leap forward in the second half of the season. Of course, being set to do something doesn’t mean you will do something. That’s especially true in MLS, where predicting future results is next to impossible compared to other leagues. Still, we can operate in good faith here when we say that, for various reasons, these teams might feel better about how they ended than how they started.
Let’s start with our early-season statistical anomalies. Although, I should note here, we’re not including the two biggest underperformers statistically. As much as I love the numbers, I’m not sure they’ve ever loved me back enough for me to buy into Colorado and the Galaxy to be set for a hard regression to the mean. Maybe they’ve deserved more so far. But I can’t see them getting that much better. I’ve seen Colorado play lately, and LA just lost Chicharito. However, I do feel bold enough to include…
It seems like New York have been waiting for a regression to the mean all year, and I’m still inclined to think it’s coming. They’re healthier, they still limit their opponent’s chances as well as anyone in the league, and, eventually, their high-floor, low-ceiling approach tends to pay off in MLS. It’s part of the reason they’ve made the playoffs every year for the last 13 seasons.
There are obviously still plenty of flaws with this group, but they’re currently underperforming their expected points projections (courtesy of American Soccer Analysis) by about eight points. In a slightly more normal soccer world, they’d be right up there in the standings with Columbus and Atlanta. They may not catch up at this point, but the numbers love them too much. The results will come... right?
We could have just coasted on the fact that Bebelo Reynoso is working his way back into the starting lineup, but it’s important to point out that ASA’s expected points model has them underperforming by about eight points, right up there with New York. Along with Colorado and LA, the Loons are in a group of their own when it comes to underperformance.
Even still, they’re right on the playoff line in the (not great) Western Conference and just got their best player back. The Loons feel like a decent bet for the kind of second half where we eventually forget they were ever in danger of missing a playoff spot.
Admittedly, I don’t trust this section as much as the numbers section. Getting big signings right is hard. But we know for a fact that these teams are set to make a big move. Or maybe even already have. If they get those moves right, they should improve.
Luiz Araújo is on his way to Flamengo and Atlanta United have an open DP spot. If they’re anywhere close to signing a player who could make a Giorgos Giakoumakis-type impact, then they could be a genuine contender for a trophy by the end of the season. If their last game is any indication, it seems like they’ve already found a replacement for Araújo on the roster. That means they can finally fix the massive gap in midfield that’s been there since Darlington Nagbe left.
This might be the most highly anticipated DP signing I can remember. Besides…well, you know. But as far as “Team X clearly needs Y!” signings go, it’s been so incredibly clear for the last couple of years now that Nashville need a true DP-caliber No. 9. It will almost feel weird if they finally get it right. It will also be terrifying for everyone in the East if the Coyotes have found another way to score besides “Get the ball to Hany.”
I’m actually not sure it will fix everything, but they do have an open U22 spot. Those aren’t as safe a bet as DP signings are, but if they can find an effective young striker using their vast scouting network, they could easily salvage a season that feels like it’s spinning out of control right now. In general, they have too much talent to not sort this out eventually. Even if that means they end up brute forcing their way to results without much cohesion.
You know the player. Look, I’m still not convinced they’ll make the playoffs but they definitely won’t get worse. Even if they did just lose yet another starter to a long-term injury.
We know what’s on the way for these teams. And all signs indicate that it’s going to rule.
I absolutely love the Chicho Arango signing. It kind of got buried by other news, but RSL spent a club-record amount to pay for a proven commodity in this league and to commit to a win-now mentality for the foreseeable future. They have good pieces. They have an excellent club ethos.
They just haven’t had the talent level to truly compete. This move doesn’t quite get them there, but it’s a great step in the right direction. Arango makes them so much more threatening going forward and that should be enough to keep them right around the playoff line the rest of the season. Don’t be surprised if they push themselves across that line at the end. Also, don’t be surprised if they’re too bad defensively for this to really matter. But, still, great signing either way.
These teams are going to add another key piece. How much will they actually improve though?
LAFC’s early post-CCL returns have been… frightening, to say the least. They’ve taken just one point from three games and this is just the beginning of the schedule congestion. Andrew Wiebe pulled the numbers: From May 31 to July 15 they’re playing a game every 3.5 days. That’s 13 games in 46 days. They’re going to struggle for a moment here, it looks like.
However, keep in mind they still have a DP spot open. They should have the cap room to bring in another major signing. At least in theory. It’s hard to imagine them staying down for too long. Even if a second straight Supporters’ Shield feels increasingly off the table.
Have we talked about the fact that FC Cincinnati have another DP striker on the way? The league’s best team so far is adding firepower. That’s a scary thought. However, it feels worth pointing out that the numbers don’t love their first half as much as the standings do. Cincy have outperformed their expected points total by about 11 points so far. The next closest team is St. Louis by seven points.
It seems like we may be looking at a team that technically gets “better” from a talent standpoint but just doesn’t put up the same kind of numbers in the second half. You can’t outrun math forever. Probably. I dunno, New England did it for all of 2021. Maybe Cincy are just blessed? Either way, they’re still a great bet for the Supporters’ Shield.
Columbus Crew's Zelarayán wins Goal of the Matchday: He hit from like 100 yards away to win the game, of course he won it.
- Meet All Stripes: Atlanta United’s LGBTQ+ supporters’ group.
- Brenden Aaronson is finding an outlet with the USMNT after Leeds United’s relegation.
- Schuyler Redpath has your MLS Fantasy Week 17 positional rankings and gaming advice.
- Luciano Acosta could potentially join the USMNT.
- The good folks at Extratime discussed whether Lionel Messi can help push Inter Miami into the playoffs.
- Here’s the streaming schedule for the MLS NEXT Cup Playoffs.
- Folks around the league continued reacting to the news of Lionel Messi’s potential arrival.
- LAFC’s Steve Cherundolo denied USMNT coaching rumors.
- Canada is looking to send Atiba Hutchinson off with a trophy.
- Wayne Rooney agrees with me that Lionel Messi is the best soccer player ever.
Good luck out there. The machines are rising.
