Conference finals today
It's finally here! LAFC host Austin FC . Then Philadelphia welcome NYCFC to Subaru Park at 8 pm ET on FS1 and FOX Deportes.
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It’s only been a week, but it feels like it’s been too long since we’ve had playoff soccer in our lives. We not only get playoff soccer back today, but we get the biggest playoff day of the year. Here’s what to watch for as four teams vie for a trip to MLS Cup.
The favorites are the favorites because they’re the favorites
LAFC and Philadelphia are two of the best teams in MLS history. LAFC might have the largest collection of top-end talent in MLS history. The Union are one of the best meldings of style and personnel in MLS history. NYCFC and Austin are both very good. But let’s be clear. A win from either would be a massive upset.
I’ve been trying to get at the heart of LAFC and Philadelphia’s greatness all week. The numbers don’t show many, if any, weaknesses. And picking out a Best XI of the final four teams came down to choosing between an LAFC and Philadelphia player more often than not. They each have outstanding rosters that have translated to being the top seed in their respective conference and the best team in their respective conference in pretty much every major and minor statistical category.
They aren’t invincible. It does, however, feel like the gap between both first seeds and the rest of their conferences seemed bigger than I can remember in a while. Today can either be about crowning them the clear number one in the conference or about how they came up short despite their high-level talent and execution. It means they’re the favorites. It also means all the pressure is on them.
Set pieces are the exhaust port
If you’re going to blow up the Death Star, you’ve got to find a weakness. Like a minuscule exhaust port, you can fire a few proton torpedoes down to explode the whole thing.
In the case of blowing up the LAFC Death Star, the exhaust port is their set piece defense and the proton torpedoes are…I dunno…Diego Fagundez? Look, the point is if LAFC have a major weakness, it’s set pieces. In fact, it’s the reason Austin beat them twice this year. Three of Austin’s six goals against LAFC came off set pieces or recycled set pieces.
The formula is pretty simple. Get up early via a set piece and Austin have a great chance of pulling off a win for the third time this year. If that doesn’t happen, then Austin might be stuck turning to Sebastian Driussi to do something special. The good news is, if the rest of the team keeps it close, Driussi is good enough to carry them to MLS Cup by himself. It’s just a heckuva ask.
I do not know how to beat Philadelphia
If Nick Cushing figures it out, full credit to him. No one else has figured out how to do it this year at Subaru Park. As much as I looked for an exhaust port this week, I didn’t find one for Philadelphia.
There’s like a 3% chance NYCFC comes out and just thumps the Union in the most shocking playoff beatdown since MLS Cup 2020. Then there’s like a 60% chance Philadelphia are in control for 90 plus and either grind out a win or flex their muscle in a major way. Then there’s like a 37% chance we end up on the timeline that’s just “FULL CHAOS YELLING AND SPRINTING EVERYWHERE” for 90 or 120 minutes or so and everyone quickly realizes they have no control over anything happening in this game or in their own lives.
That last one is the most likely scenario for NYCFC to pull out a win. Against a team with no real weaknesses, you just have to throw as many random variables into the equation as possible and hope the answer that comes out of it goes your way. If things start going haywire, then NYCFC fans should be feeling really good. It means the Union are off-script. And NYCFC are one of the very few teams in the league this season good enough to capitalize on that.
Of course, the script for the Union tonight involves a full-out revenge march over the team that knocked them out of MLS Cup contention last year. That script is very much in play. Either way, there’s a decent chance we see something special happen.
Sounders sign homegrown midfielder Sota Kitahara from Tacoma Defiance: Seattle Sounders FC have signed homegrown midfielder Sota Kitahara after he played for MLS NEXT Pro side Tacoma Defiance from 2021-22. Kitahara, 19, is signed through the 2024 MLS season with club options in 2025 and 2026.
- LAFC's Giorgio Chiellini said MLS playoffs feel like a "Champions League game."
- NYCFC will likely be shorthanded for the Eastern Conference Final at Philadelphia.
- Austin FC's Brad Stuver is "one of the old-school stories" in evolving MLS.
- MLS Cup hosting rights run through Los Angeles.
- LAFC’s MLS Cup dream meets an Austin team that’s had their number.
Good luck out there. Do it for the right people.
