MLS Cup is set!
Western Conference champions LA Galaxy (No. 2) will host Eastern Conference champions New York Red Bulls (No. 7) on Saturday for MLS Cup 2024 presented by Audi. The Galaxy took down Seattle 1-0 thanks to Dejan Joveljić’s late winner while New York reached their first MLS Cup since 2008 thanks to Andrés Reyes’ 47th minute set piece goal.
It’s two MLS originals in MLS Cup. Here’s how we got there and a few thoughts on where we might be going.
We got exactly the game we thought we were going to get.
Before this one, we talked about a game destined to finish with both teams hovering around 1.0 xG. That’s exactly where we ended up. When you have that kind of match, it typically comes down to which team capitalizes on a single opportunity. That’s exactly what New York did when John Tolkin sent a stinging free kick to the back post for Andrés Reyes to dunk home.
That’s all the Red Bulls needed. Orlando got off the mat and octupled their first half shot total (1) but couldn’t find a breakthrough. Once Red Bulls became the lucky team to flip the game state in a match predicated on tactics predicated on making the other team miserable, the Lions weren’t going to find any joy. Now, New York are back in MLS Cup for the first time since 2008 and for the second time in club history.
Honestly… I straight up cannot believe it. I try to advocate for data and analytics and New York had outstanding underlying numbers throughout the regular season. They finished second in American Soccer Analysis’ all-encompassing goals-added metric and second in expected points. But only one data point that really seemed to matter heading into the playoffs: Over their nine post-Leagues Cup games, New York picked up 0.67 points per game, the 28th-worst mark in MLS. They were sputtering down the homestretch. Then, with Emil Forsberg back to 100%, Sandro Schwarz decided to switch to a back five and make life miserable for everyone they come up against and now we’re here.
The sentiment I’ve picked up on from the majority of folks with Red Bulls ties (in between the intermittent whooping and sprinting in circles) has been, “This team?” With all the excellent, Shield-winning sides this club has put together, it doesn’t quite make sense it’s this group dabbling in curse-breaking. But it doesn’t feel like a fluke. They were better than Columbus. Columbus. Then they flipped the game state early against New York City FC. And last night they executed again against Orlando. Yeah, there have been some breaks, but none of it has been unearned.
They just need one more truly great performance to pull off the most remarkable run to an MLS Cup… ever? They’ve already done what so many great Red Bulls teams couldn’t. What’s one more win?
Seattle did exactly what they needed to do. For 84 minutes, they kept the Galaxy quiet and forced LA to wonder when and how a goal would come. We were on the exact timeline you’d imagine when you thought about an upset for the Sounders. And then it didn’t matter.
The Galaxy, with all their firepower, finally found a singular moment to capitalize on and that was that. A giveaway from Seattle put the ball at Riqui Puig’s feet. Puig played an incisive, angled through ball for Dejan Joveljić, who didn’t hesitate to send a low shot across his body and past Stefan Frei. The goal registered as just one of two above-average chances on the night for LA. And it couldn’t be called clear-cut.
Still, that’s all it takes for this Galaxy side. Seattle were executing a near-perfect game plan until near-perfect wasn’t enough. We worried before this one what might happen if LA weren’t able to come out and run over Seattle the way they ran over Colorado and Minnesota. They didn’t but found a way through anyway.
It helped, of course, that this Seattle side just simply didn’t have anything working in attack. That should come as no surprise. This group operated at a high level defensively, but their deficiencies going forward have been clear for months now. They couldn’t find a way to brute-force their way to a goal and the Galaxy found a way to rescue themselves from a 2016 Toronto-esque fate.
LA are now heavy, heavy favorites to win their first title since 2014. It took a decade of wandering through “Big Club (flawed front office)” purgatory, but through their fans' efforts to [ahem] gently encourage a front office restructuring, through Greg Vanney’s efforts to [ahem] establish an actual scouting department, and through elite year-one performances from Gabriel Pec and Joseph Paintsil, the Galaxy are close to being back on the mountaintop.
Everything has gone their way this postseason. While all the other Big Bads around the league faltered in the first two rounds, they were busy overwhelming their opponents. Last night, they took care of the least overwhelmable team in the league. On Saturday, they need to win just one more winnable home game against the seventh seed in the East to get back on their perch.
- At long last, an LA Galaxy vs. New York Red Bulls MLS Cup.
- New York earned “an incredible moment.”
- The Galaxy are back in MLS Cup and hungry for another title.
Good luck out there. Keep important dates in mind.
