Your Saturday Kickoff: Can LAFC, Philadelphia return to MLS Cup?

Round One starts tonight

Philadelphia host New England at 5 pm ET. LAFC take on Vancouver at 8 pm ET. Both games are free on Apple TV.

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It’s entirely possible we’re a month and a half away from an MLS Cup rematch. Philadelphia and LAFC both enter tonight’s Round One matchups as slight favorites. From there, it will get a little more difficult. But it isn’t farfetched to imagine one or both teams making it back to the final. There’s still plenty of talent on both sides. And, obviously, they’ve both been here before.

That being said, both are on upset alert heading into tonight. Neither are flying into the Audi 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs with a full head of steam, especially Philadelphia. Here’s how both can hold off a push from two capable underdogs in their respective series.

LAFC AVOID THE UPSET IF…

Dénis Bouanga stays hot (or someone else steps up)

Bouanga is entering this series with six goals in his last three games. That includes a Decision Day goal against Vancouver in a 1-1 draw. That’s a heckuva stretch. However…

Three of those goals came against a Minnesota team that dismissed their coach after the match. Two came against an Austin side that had nothing to play for. In the three-game stretch before that, LAFC were shut out by three playoff teams. In that same span, they also failed to find the net in Campeones Cup. Before that, they put four up on the Galaxy after scoring just twice in a three-game stretch against Charlotte, Miami and Portland. Can you see why there might be some concern about the attack even with Bouanga on a roll?

It’s felt at times like it’s Bouanga or nothing for this team. And overall it’s a decidedly different feel from last year’s group that felt like it had overwhelming firepower. Other than Bouanga, LAFC are led in attack by 34-year-old Carlos Vela (nine goals) and then it’s… Ryan Hollingshead or Timothy Tillman (four goals each)?

Or maybe recent signings Mario González and Cristian Olivera are set to step up. They only have three goals across 12 starts between them since they arrived in Los Angeles this summer, but their underlying numbers are solid. Both are averaging about 0.6 xG per 90 minutes. That’s right below Giorgos Giakoumakis (0.63), slightly above Brian White (0.55 xG) and ahead of Bouanga (0.51) Small sample size of course, but those are encouraging numbers. If it’s not going to be Bouanga leading the way, it might have to be the new guys.

They slow down Gauld and White

On the other side, the Whitecaps have a legitimate claim to a more potent 1-2 punch. If it’s not going to be Brian White leading the way, it’s going to be Ryan Gauld. White enters the playoffs with 15 non-penalty goals – two off Bouanga’s league-leading 17 – and five assists. Gauld piled up 11 goals and 12 assists this season.

From there, there’s not a consistent third option in attack. Or even really a dangerous one. LAFC don’t have a consistent option C, but they do have guys who can strike some fear into the back line. It feels like something close to a wash when it comes to options A and B on both sides though. If Gauld and White are the better pair over the next two or three games, the ‘Caps have a chance.

The midfield stays in control

It’s been strange to see LAFC hit a bit of a wall in midfield this year. There’s clearly a ton of talent, but a common criticism of this group has been their inability to control games. Maybe that’s down to losing José Cifuentes, maybe the pieces just don’t quite fit, maybe both and more, but they’re going to have to be sharp in this series and sharp the rest of the playoffs.

The Whitecaps don’t have as many big names in midfield, but guys like Andrés Cubas, Pedro Vite, Alessandro Schöpf and Ali Ahmed will all do the necessary work. If this becomes the kind of series where one team is winning all of the 50/50 balls and maybe the 60/40s too, LAFC could be in trouble.

PHILADELPHIA AVOID THE UPSET IF…

Decision Day was a fluke

It might seem weird to be calling New England an underdog after they took down Philadelphia with relative ease on Decision Day. A couple of things though…

First, José Martínez didn’t play due to yellow card accumulation. Philly went to a back three without him and they’ve generally been far less impressive this year when they’ve had to get away from their midfield diamond. They’ve been far less impressive over the last few years when they haven’t had Martínez available.

Second, this is in Chester. The Union have had an absurd home record over the last few years. In MLS play, they’ve lost seven whole times in Philly since the start of 2019. They’ve lost once in the last two seasons. The Revs missing out on home-field advantage looms large here.

Carles Gil is kept in check

Yeah, Gustavo Bou found the net twice last weekend. Yeah, Tomás Chancalay is a stud who could make his own major impact on this series. But there’s only one Carles Gil. The Union’s vaunted midfield is going to have their hands full no matter what. But if they can slow him down enough then the Revs have lost their primary catalyst for an upset. That’s easier said than done, but this doesn’t feel like a Revs team that can turn to anyone else. Martínez may be keyed in on Gil like it's a full-time job over the next couple of weeks. He might be one of the few sixes in the league good enough to actually slow him down.

They remind us that Djordje Petrovic is gone

The Revs missing a world-class shot-stopper in goal feels important here. I know we keep harping on it here at The Daily Kickoff, but Petrovic was a true match-winner. A genuine equalizer. Now, the Union seem to have a serious advantage in goal. Andre Blake could be definitive. He might even be the biggest reason the Union are favorites here. The Revs will need to be at their absolute best to make up for the disparity here.

Tamia and Grant Hill join Orlando City SC, Orlando Pride ownership group: Tamia and Grant Hill have joined the ownership group for Orlando City SC and the NWSL's Orlando Pride. The Hills join as limited partners after years of leadership in the Orlando sports and philanthropic communities, and as season-ticket members for each Orlando soccer club.

• Jon Arnold looked at how Héctor Herrera revitalized Houston Dynamo FC.
• Jonathan Sigal has some predictions for Round One.
• Jaime Uribarri zoomed in on Philadelphia’s MLS Cup chase as offseason changes loom.
• Check out an in-depth preview of Philadelphia vs. New England.  And then do the same for LAFC vs Vancouver.

Good luck out there. Dress for the occasion.