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You hear it every year around the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs. “It’s all about getting hot at the right time.” You’ll be shocked to learn that most studies of postseasons across sports suggest that’s not actually a thing and “getting hot” mostly means “getting lucky over a small sample size” or “being really good at the sport already.”
But, just for fun on this quiet Monday morning, let’s take “getting hot at the right time” at face value. Let’s take a look at who’s “getting hot at the right time” based on a few different measures of heat and definitions of what “the right time” actually is. Maybe it will tell us something about the playoffs to come.
Is the right time the very last steps before the postseason? If so, the obvious pick here is LAFC. They’d been floundering for a while and entered this last week with just two wins over their last nine games in all competitions. Two huge wins later and suddenly they feel dangerous again.
LAFC destroyed Minnesota in a 5-1 midweek win and followed it up with a 4-2 win in Austin on Saturday. Dénis Bouanga scored five times over those two games and jumped to the top of the Golden Boot presented by Audi standings. And LAFC just need a Decision Day win to secure the second spot in the West.
There are certainly still flaws with this team. Plus it’s not entirely clear if they were finally clicking at a truly elite level this week or just beating up on bad teams. But they still have a ton of talent. And Bouanga is the most dangerous player in the league when he’s on. If he’s getting hot at the right time then so are LAFC. That should frighten everyone in the West.
Maybe a week isn’t enough to convince you that a team is actually hot. How about a month?
Since Sept. 9, Orlando and Portland have been the hottest teams in the league by points per game. Over the course of six games, they’ve both averaged 2.17 points. Trailing behind them are the Red Bulls and Cincinnati with 1.83 points per game and Seattle with 1.8 points per game. We’ll talk more about Orlando in a bit, but we know what a hot Portland and a hot Seattle mean for the rest of the West in the playoffs. There’s a reason we had that never-ending stretch of Cascadia teams in MLS Cup before last year.
It’s actually even scarier when you look at the underlying numbers. American Soccer Analysis’ “Expected Points” metric measures how likely a team is to win based on chances created and chances allowed. FC Cincinnati has led the league in expected points over the last month with 2.25 per game, but the Timbers are right behind them with 2.02 and Seattle are right behind them with 1.96. The Crew and Red Bulls aren’t too far behind that. I think it’s fair to say the Cascadia teams and New York are as close to “hot at the right time” as it gets right now.
Thing is, Cincy have been hot at the right time for the entire year in addition to being hot over the last few games. It’s not a bold take to say you have more confidence in the Shield winners to make a playoff run than most other teams, but it’s worth repeating how good Cincy have been.
Maybe a month is still too small a sample size for you. What about the entire back half of the season?
Well, you end up finding some familiar faces. You might be surprised, though. Over the last 16 games it hasn’t been FC Cincinnati. They’ve been second-best with 1.75 points per game. The best team by far over the last 16 games has been Orlando City. The Lions have averaged 2.13 points per game since the middle of June. Cincinnati have averaged 1.75. The gap between Orlando and Cincy in that span is the same as the gap between St. Louis and FC Dallas over the course of this season. The Lions have been excellent.
But have they also been lucky? Their underlying numbers don’t paint the picture of a team that’s been destroying teams game over game. In that 16-game stretch, their expected points numbers have them as the ninth-best team in the league. That’s pretty good. It’s not elite.
If we’re going by the underlying numbers, Cincy have unsurprisingly been the best team by expected points in that span. The Crew, Red Bulls, LAFC and Houston trail behind them.
So, who’s truly “hot at the right time”? I honestly don’t know. MLS is weird and maybe the only league in the world where the underlying (and overlying) numbers don’t provide consistent clarity. But what I do know is that FC Cincinnati have been good by every measure over every stretch of the season. Maybe we shouldn’t overthink this and just keep repeating that Cincinnati are the heavy favorite regardless of which teams are playing well heading into the postseason.
- LAFC are "hungry for more" as Bouanga enters supersonic mode.
- Austin failing to make the playoffs in 2023 is "a huge disappointment.”
- The Galaxy will miss the playoffs after "five seasons worth of challenges."
- There’s "still a chance" for Minnesota United after Adrian Heath’s exit.
- Matt Doyle’s Sunday column is up and good.
Good luck out there. Become a great story.
