Pec, Musa added to 2024 MLS All-Star Team Roster
LA Galaxy forward Gabriel Pec and FC Dallas forward Petar Musa have been added to the 2024 MLS All-Star Team Roster by head coach Wilfried Nancy, MLS announced Sunday.
We’ve made it to Skill Challenge-All-Star Game-Leagues Cup week. We can finally start looking ahead to Leagues Cup and wondering which teams have a genuine shot at competing for a title against Liga MX’s best. Don’t let last year fool you. That’s a steep task. Even with Liga MX teams playing entirely on the road and early into their season, they still had plenty of success. And the big bads are still the big bads. You aren’t going to roll over Pachuca or Cruz Azul or Monterrey or Tigres or Club América or Chivas just because Inter Miami went on a miracle run to a trophy last year. And they won’t have Lionel Messi this time.
As always, if we’re being very honest with ourselves about MLS teams, there are only a few that even have a shot at winning a trophy. The introduction of new players during this summer window complicates things a bit, but we already have a solid idea of who has it in them and who doesn’t.
You can divide the teams that can actually compete on talent or vibes into two categories: Teams that are here to win and teams that are fun to think about winning if everything goes right. Really, only the first one has a shot, but we’ll try not to be total bummers today. Only mostly bummers.
The Rapids don’t have the juice to win the whole thing, but I wanted to include them as a team that’s been playing good ball and definitely has the potential to make a deep run. They just took down a good RSL side to win the Rocky Mountain Cup for the first time in years and are pretty clearly the fourth-best team in the West at this point. The results are good and the underlying numbers are even better
The Timbers are just behind the Rapids as far as dark horse potential goes. It’s pretty clear both sides don’t have the talent or defensive solidity to win the whole thing, but both score tons of goals and have quality in attack. There’s another big problem here though. They’re both in the same group and that group happens to include Club León. It will be a challenge to make it past the first step.
They’re a decent team. Probably the fourth best in the East. But Emil Forsberg is still on the injured list and Frankie Amaya is gone. It just feels like this is too much of an uphill battle talent-wise. They could potentially opt for the Nashville gambit though, and play outstanding defense on their way to a deep run.
They’re a decent team. They’re also very young and inconsistent in attack. There is a world where they get hot and lean on their solid midfield and goalkeeper Matt Freese to guide them through the first stages of the competition. They could also potentially opt for the Nashville gambit and play outstanding defense on their way to a deep run.
Karol Swiderski is back! That’s a big boost for their attack. But mostly, they could potentially opt for the Nashville gambit and play outstanding defense on their way to a deep run.
They could not potentially opt for the Nashville gambit and play outstanding defense on their way to a deep run. There’s a serious lack of center backs in Cincy right now, and that’s led to three straight losses heading into the group stage. With Miles Robinson gone to the Olympics, they’re going to be too overwhelmed defensively to get this done. Lucho Acosta could put the team on his back for a while, but even he has his limits.
It’s really not fair to Cincy for the universe to do this to them. Just a healthy starting defender or two more and they would be favorites in this thing.
Maybe a bit controversial, but at some point talent matters. Chicho Arango, Diego Luna and Andrés Gómez are all outstanding, but there are clear flaws with the rest of the roster. They just played three of the West’s best in three games and only took one point. I think that’s closer to the truth with this team than anything else. You can even go back a couple of weeks to their 1-0 loss to the Galaxy. They just haven’t had enough to keep pace with the best of the best. A deep run is on the table, a trophy is a long shot.
I struggled with where to put the Galaxy. I really, really, really considered putting them in the next tier. But there are still too many defensive issues. As amazing as they are in attack, I don’t think they have the solidity to make it through a knockout tournament. They’re going to have to get their hands in the mud at some point and grind out a result, and I don’t know if they have that in them. This one kind of hurt me, but we’re being open and honest, right?
Ah yeah, that’s right, I woke up this morning and wanted to start a dialogue. My current running hypothesis is the Herons are basically the worst great team ever. Their underlying numbers are remarkably mid for a team also on a clear path to winning the Supporters’ Shield. My two favorites (and most predictive) are expected points and goals added differential. They aren’t perfect stats, but they do a nice job of telling us if you’re getting the ball into more dangerous spaces than your opponents. Inter Miami are 17th in MLS in expected points and 20th in goals added differential.
Based on their 2.12 points per game mark compared to their current rate of 1.36 expected points per game, they’re currently the luckiest team in American Soccer Analysis’ database (back to 2013) by a significant margin. They’re 0.71 points better per game than expected. The next highest, 2021 New England, was 0.58 points better, won a ton of one-goal games and had Matt Turner putting up an all-time great shot-stopping season in goal. I have no idea how they’re doing this. And it’s not as easy as saying “Messi” and moving on. He’s only started 11 games. He doesn’t account for the other 14.
Anyway, I think Miami’s Concacaf Champions Cup performance felt instructive. There are still clear flaws and competing with the likes of Monterrey is still a step above their level. With Lionel Messi likely out for the entirety of the competition, they’re going to be fighting an uphill battle I’m not sure even luck can power them through.
(Lol who am I kidding? They’re going to win the whole thing.)
For my money, they’re still the top team in the West even after a disappointing couple of weeks. Their underlying numbers are by far the best in the conference and are on par with some of the best teams in MLS history, even if they are technically a step below the double-winning 2022 version of this team.
Meanwhile, the eye test shows us Denis Bouanga and Mateusz Bogusz providing elite attacking play for a side playing some of the best defense in the league. Add Olivier Giroud to the mix - he’s officially available now by the way, even if he won’t be in LA until the start of August - and you have a team that can absolutely power their way to a trophy. They just have to overcome some past demons with knockout tournaments.
This is it. This is the only other team that clearly has everything they need to get it done. And even they kind of face-planted after their huge 5-1 win at LAFC a couple of Saturdays ago. They lost some momentum last week with a 1-1 draw against Charlotte and a 2-1 loss to Atlanta. Soccer is hard.
But they don’t have to worry about the group stage and get an immediate boost into the Round of 32 thanks to their MLS Cup win last year. They’ve been the best defensive team in the league this season and have all their attacking firepower still in place. They may even be able to add new midfield signing Dylan Chambost to the mix. They’re good enough to win it all. And this time they don’t have to go down to Mexico to do it.
- Sacha Kljestan looked at whose stock is up and whose is down.
- Matt Doyle’s Sunday column is up and good.
- Cole Bassett provided the latest Energy Moment of the Matchday presented by Celsius.
- Here’s your Team of the Matchday presented by Audi.
Good luck out there. Give the people a reason to celebrate.
