Two teams in the middle of the Eastern Conference standings are trending in very different directions as they battle it out for the conference's last home playoff spot. It seems like we’re on an obvious trajectory toward an inevitable end. I have some questions before we get there.
How real is Orlando City’s latest run?
The Lions have quietly been putting together one of the best stretches in MLS right now. It’s hard to notice when they’ve been climbing the bottom half of the Eastern standings, but they’ve earned 22 points over their last 10 MLS games. They’re up to fifth in the conference and, considering how miserable the New Yorks and Charlotte have been the last couple of months, they’re probably going to finish fourth.
The shift in fortune has largely coincided with shifting DP attacker Martín Ojeda into the No. 10 spot. Orlando tried a few folks there throughout the season. And, yeah, not aiming higher than picking up an aging Nico Lodeiro to fill that role this offseason still feels like a missed opportunity. But Ojeda has been a productive presence during this run. Since he joined the starting lineup back on June 28, he has two goals and six assists over nine MLS games.
Orlando have been on a 2.11 points per game pace over that stretch. We saw them get hot like this last year, though. In the end, that run felt more like smoke and mirrors than anything. Orlando were overperforming their underlying numbers in the second half by a hilarious and unrepeatable amount. When they crashed out of the playoffs, it didn’t really come as a surprise. When they basically ran it back with largely the same group this year, it didn’t come as a total surprise they struggled out of the gate.
To walk that out a bit further: From June 28 of last year until the end of 2023 - a 15-game stretch - the Lions put up an MLS-best pace of 2.33 points per game while their underlying numbers had them at a rate of 1.48 expected points per game. This season, they’re on a 1.43 points per game pace.
Over the latest run of good form though, their underlying numbers have been among the league’s best. Per American Soccer Analysis (ASA), they’ve created and allowed chances at a rate of 1.71 expected points per game. Just four teams in MLS have been better over that span. Yes, they’re still overperforming, but not by last year’s comical, Inter Miami-esque margin. They aren’t falling rear backwards into these results.
That being said…
Here is a list of all the teams Orlando City have beaten over the last 10 games that are in seventh place or higher:
And here’s the list of teams they’ve beaten that are above the playoff line: Toronto FC (8th place in the East), D.C. United (9th place in the East)
Sooooo… yeah. Five of their seven wins in that 10-game run we mentioned earlier are against Nashville, New England and Chicago. They’ve beaten both 14th-place Nashville and 15th-place New England twice.
Orlando are undeniably playing better ball. You can only beat the teams that are put in front of you. But it’s fair to wonder what’ll happen when they start going up against serious competition again.
We’re going to find out this week. The Lions take on Charlotte on Wednesday and Columbus on Saturday.
How real is the New York Red Bulls’ latest run?
While looking at some of the numbers for Orlando City, I couldn’t help but notice the team they’re now battling for fourth place. The Red Bulls’ results have been downright atrocious for a while now. Every week we’re going back and updating the latest tally on their terrible record over the last X number of games. After this weekend’s 2-1 loss to Chicago (yuck), that tally is up to two wins over the last 13 games. If you include Leagues Cup, they’ve won twice over their last 15 games.
Unsurprisingly, that stretch coincides with DP Emil Forsberg missing time due to injury. He hasn’t started since June 1. The Red Bulls have scored just 16 times since then. Adding another DP attacker during the summer window could have helped with that of course, but we’ll get back to complaining about that on a different day. For now, we’re here to wonder if the Red Bulls without Forsberg have been as bad as their recent record says.
Well, if you’re looking at the underlying numbers, the answer is no. Not even close really.
Since Forsberg’s last start, the Red Bulls have been on a 1.08 points per game pace over 13 games. Only eight teams have had worse results over that span. Since Forsberg’s last start, the Red Bulls' underlying numbers have clocked them at 1.83 expected points per game. Only two teams in the league have been better. No team has underperformed their underlying numbers at the same rate. In fact, no team has really even been close.
It’s fair of course to point out that missing an attacker with Forsberg’s quality is part of the reason why the ball isn’t finding the back of the net despite the chances created. That only explains some of this though. The rest seems to be down to bad finishing luck.
I’m not sure exactly when Forsberg will be back. It seems like they’re eyeing the upcoming Hudson River Derby. But even then, I’m not sure when he’ll be back to 100%. I am sure that they should have signed another attacker. But I’ll say that when Forsberg returns, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the Red Bulls get their life together at the very end of the season. An injection of talent and confidence plus a heavy regression to the mean is a powerful formula in MLS.
Is Inter Miami’s latest run real?
It was going to drive me insane if I didn’t mention it: I saw it as I looked up Orlando and Red Bulls stuff, and I might actually have exploded.
In their last 10 games, Inter Miami have averaged 2.7 points per game. ASA has their expected point rate over that span at 1.11. They’re overperforming their underlying numbers by 1.59 POINTS PER GAME. And it might become even more pronounced now that Lionel Messi is back. This team is actively trying to kill math. I can’t tell if that’s the coolest thing ever or an affront to everything I stand for. Either way, it’s giving me ulcers.
- The Galaxy completed a historic El Tráfico comeback.
- Matt Doyle’s Sunday column is up and good.
Good luck out there. Never miss.
