Minnesota United, FC Dallas play to 0-0 draw
In the final game of the weekend, neither team was able to find the net.
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We’re nearly a third of the way through the season and we can truly start to say your record says a lot about who you are and your underlying numbers can tell us a lot about who you might be soon. We’re crossing the threshold from “I dunno, those results seem kind of fake” to “Well, at this point, this might just be what it is.”
That being said, I’m not exactly sure how much we truly learned from Matchday 10, but we can at least talk through a few things. Here are some assorted thoughts from the weekend that was (and the season that’s been).
Something is stressing me out. There’s not a whole lot to actually say on it all considered, but I have to at least make sure everyone is aware that something odd is happening.
The New York Red Bulls – they of like 40 straight playoff appearances – are now in last place in the East. Yes, the vibes have been bad. Yes, the results have been mediocre. But it wouldn’t be The Daily Kickoff if we didn’t let everyone know, per American Soccer Analysis, their expected goals numbers suggest they should be far closer to first place in the East than last.
And by that I mean, they have the single best expected goal differential in the East. They’re creating higher-quality chances than their opponents on a consistent basis. But there they are. In last.
It doesn’t feel like they’ll be there for long. No team in the league has kept their opponent from creating quality chances like the Red Bulls. They’ve essentially been the best defensive team in the league. However, they don’t create chances for themselves at a high level and that’s allowed some bad luck and variance to creep in and shift results away from what the expected goals numbers suggest they should be. No team in the East has been quite so unlucky.
Is that enough to overcome bad vibes, Lewis Morgan’s injury and everything else that’s made 2023 a pretty miserable year in Harrison so far? I honestly don’t know. I’ll just say don’t be surprised if they start dragging themselves out of last place and into a playoff spot, like always, sometime soon.
Two performances this weekend confirmed “Tier Two” status for me.. By that I mean, we’re looking at teams that are certainly playoff teams, but, as of now, aren’t contenders to win anything meaningful.
Atlanta United went up to Nashville and laid an egg while their midfield looked totally overwhelmed. Full credit to Nashville, who took off the restrictor plates and mollywhopped the Five Stripes, but I think when we’re looking at Atlanta, we’re looking at a team that’s going to struggle against the best teams in the conference until they get things sorted out in the middle of the pitch. It’s just too easy for teams to play through them and too easy to disrupt buildup. Especially when Santiago Sosa and Matheus Rossetto are out there together.
Meanwhile, the Crew were at home against Inter Miami and, somehow, Inter Miami’s six-game losing streak came to an end. It’s not like Columbus played terribly. And things just happen in MLS sometimes. However, that’s back-to-back losses to Eastern Conference teams that, frankly, seem set to miss the playoffs. There’s just a certain level of quality from top-to-bottom in Columbus’ roster that’s going to keep them from challenging for a trophy. At least right now.
Both of these teams are heading in the right direction this season. Everyone involved likely understands work is still needed though.
Three straight wins! Three! I’m unsure the last time D.C. United had three straight wins, however I doubt it came last season when they had seven wins total.
The Black and Red are sitting seventh in the East after their fourth win of the year, even on points with the Crew and just one point behind Nashville and NYCFC. Does this stretch mean they’re \Actually Good\? I don’t know. But at least they’re putting together an entertaining product on the field.
The attacking pieces are there, the underlying numbers are totally ok and things just kind of seem to be looking up in D.C. I’m not sure how many folks expected them to be fighting for a playoff spot, but it looks like that’s where they’re heading. Even if they don’t get there in the end, at least it feels like you could turn on a D.C. United game and maybe even enjoy yourself. This is progress.
We’ve been talking about some of the most totally ok teams in the East; now let’s talk about the bad news that hit one of the conference’s best. There’s no official word yet, but it seems like New England winger Dylan Borrero will be out a for an extended period after leaving this week’s match against FC Cincinnati on a stretcher.
First and foremost, it’s a total bummer to lose one of the most exciting players in the league like that and we hope he’s back soon. Second, you have to wonder how high the Revs’ ceiling is without him. They didn’t have an outsized chance at the Supporters’ Shield this year, but it felt like the pieces were similar enough to the 2021 team to make it happen. Now, there may be questions about whether New England have the firepower and match winners going forward to tilt close games in their favor.
This is still one of the best teams in the league. Djordje Petrovic alone will earn them a ton of points this season. But losing Borrero might keep them from being a little more than just really good.
I feel compelled to point out Portland opted to not have the ball (shocking) and St. Louis struggled. Portland’s 2-1 road win featured 15 shots from the Timbers and a 1.6 to 0.8 xG advantage. That’s not a beatdown or anything, but Portland were largely the better team. I’m not sure if that’s the Timbers (and Evander) starting to figure things out or the Timbers (and Evander!) going up against an opponent that still hasn’t quite figured out what to do when Plan A gets dismissed.
For now though, St. Louis are still near the top of the West. But there are signs they might be set to drop back towards the pack a bit as the year goes along.
That’s three straight games where Chicago should have come away with more points than they did. If they held onto late leads against Philadelphia and New York and a late draw against Atlanta, they’d be sitting fourth in the East. I don’t really have anything to add to that except, I dunno, stop doing that? It’s time to be eggs and not potatoes, Chicago.
- The Vancouver Whitecaps-Colorado Rapids match featured three referees who are women for the first time in MLS history.
- Sporting Kansas City have played 10 games without a win.
- New England Revolution and FC Cincinnati brought on a "playoff atmosphere" in Foxborough.
- Inter Miami ended a six-game losing streak thanks to Leo Campana’s brace.
- Ezra Hendrickson called the Chicago Fire's latest late collapse "just ridiculous."
- Gio Savarese believes Evander is "finding his way" in MLS.
- CJ Sapong shined in his Toronto FC debut after his deadline day trade.
- Christian Benteke's bicycle kick brought back memories for Wayne Rooney.
- Matt Doyle’s Sunday Column is up and good.
Good luck out there. Don’t let anything get past you.
