Your Monday Kickoff: Another Messi miracle? Inter Miami appear destined for playoffs

What you need to know

Inter Miami cruise past LAFC

Facundo Farías somehow scored and celebrated at the same time in the 14th minute, and Inter Miami CF were off and running to a 3-1 win at LAFC. Jordi Alba and Leo Campana added goals as Lionel Messi provided two assists. Inter Miami are now eight points behind ninth-place D.C. United with two games in hand.

Philadelphia crush New York after red card

A 1-1 stalemate turned into a 4-1 romp after New York Red Bulls center back Sean Nealis picked up a red card in the 44th minute. Damion Lowe, Julián Carranza and Dániel Gazdag added second-half goals in the Union win. Philadelphia are one point behind second-place New England, while the Red Bulls ended the weekend in 13th place, one point behind NYCFC and four points out of a playoff spot.

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Assorted takes from the weekend that was

We’re shockingly close to the end of the regular season now. Your favorite team likely has somewhere between six to eight games left. That’s it. But there’s still plenty to learn and plenty to decide. Let’s talk it out.

They’re going to do this, huh?

That’s right, it’s time for our weekly segment: “Wow, Inter Miami are really good, BUT…”

Wow, Inter Miami are really good, BUT… but… uh… well, you see… Ok, I dunno, y’all. I think I’m out of reasons to try and explain why they won’t make the Audi 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs and win the whole dang thing.

I tried. I really tried. They’ll be without Lionel Messi and a handful of key contributors for this Saturday’s matchup with Sporting Kansas City. But when their new U22s, Facundo Farías and Tomás Avilés, are putting together goals like Miami’s first on Sunday night, it’s hard to find a convincing reason why they won’t be able to get a point or three against SKC at home.

At this point, they have two games in hand on ninth-place D.C. United. They’re eight points behind. Win those two games in hand and it’s just a two-point gap. With all due respect to a decent D.C. side, it feels doubtful they’ll be able to hold off the Herons. It would be absurd, but, at this point, I wouldn’t blink if Miami finished with 50 points. They’d have to win eight of their last nine and draw the other, but, I mean [gestures broadly]. And, on top of that, just three of those nine games come against probable playoff teams.

Once they reach the playoffs, they’ll likely have to spend the entire time on the road. Definitely seems hard. Eventually, they’ve got to lose a penalty shootout, right? But, then again, they may not have to rely on the magic that got them through Leagues Cup. They seem to be improving week over week at a rope-a-dope style that lets quality opponents feel like they’re gaining control until it’s too late for them to realize they’re actually stumbling into a deeper level of hell. You’re creating chances, loving life, and all of a sudden a future Argentinian star or literally one of the greatest players ever has ripped you apart for a tap-in. Playing Inter Miami right now is like being in the cast of Jacka**. You’re having a great time with your friends, you’re smiling and laughing and you think “Wow, I haven’t been pushed into a snake pit lately.” And that’s exactly when you get pushed into a snake pit.

Anyway, my favorite running subplot in all of this is that style has the Herons set to break MLS analytics. They’re going to create three massive chances each game, finish all of them and end up winning 3-1 despite losing the xG battle. Kind of just like last night. Just try to appreciate this version of Inter Miami before they improve their roster even more this offseason and start controlling every game from start to finish without breaking a sweat.

Elsewhere in Florida…

Orlando City picked up the other biggest win of the weekend. The Lions did enough to become the first team all season to grind out a regular-season win in Cincinnati. They finished the weekend tied for second in the East and have taken 10 points from their four post-Leagues Cup games.

On top of that, they were able to clear a DP spot last week by sending striker Ercan Kara to Turkey’s Samsunspor. That’s a huge win for newly locked-in starter Duncan McGuire and, in a weird way, a kind of remarkable accomplishment for Orlando. They’ve been able to hit the MLS SuperDraft up for a starting-caliber striker twice in the last few years in a league where most teams can’t survive without paying DP money for a No. 9.

Now they can use that spot to improve elsewhere and eventually add to a team that’s slowly but surely turned into one of the league’s most consistent performers over the course of the season. Right now though, they feel like a lock to finish in a top-four spot in the East and play a home knockout game or two. The big question now is whether or not they have the juice to win a trophy. Beating Cincy at TQL Stadium is a great sign, but the playoffs are a different kind of bear. You generally have to have an elite matchwinner or two or four. McGuire is their leading non-penalty goal scorer with eight goals on the season. Facundo Torres has 11 goals on the season, but five of those are via penalty. Iván Angulo is a blast to watch, but his production is inconsistent. Pedro Gallese has basically been league-average in goal this season. Basically, it feels like they’re going to have to be on a team-wide heater to get this done.

The good news is it seems totally plausible. There aren’t many weak links in the chain. A high floor can be more than enough to make it through a tournament like the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs. Essentially, what I’m trying to get at is LOL ACTUAL PEOPLE WANTED ORLANDO TO DISMISS OSCAR PAREJA.

Tiki-taka

Seattle remain the most conflicting team in the league to watch from afar. In a vacuum, there are far worse things than a draw against Portland that pushes you to second place in the West. In context, ohmygod they blew another lead against Portland??? Is anyone having fun in Seattle right now? The whole season kind of feels like a bummer. Then again, second place. It’s like this roster is trying to burrow through their own floor with a plastic spoon. Maybe at some point they’ll turn it around and start trying to touch their ceiling.
If I haven’t already, I’m fully prepared to call a time of death on the Red Bulls’ 13-year playoff streak. They have to catch the teams in front of them and they have to hold off Inter Miami. It doesn’t feel like they’ll be able to do either at this point. They’re six points behind eighth-place CF Montréal with seven games to go and just four points ahead of Miami, who have two games in hand. They’ll likely go down as one of the single-best teams (by underlying numbers) to ever miss the playoffs.
The “notable attendees” list for the LAFC-Miami game was wild. If I had to list them by notoriety, I’d go…

Mookie Betts - LA Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw - LA Dodg...

Ah, wait, sorry y’all, this is just a list of people who lost three of four games in a critical home series against Atlanta this weekend, my bad.

We may talk about it more later in the week, but this year’s Eastern Conference is probably the best MLS conference of all time and it’s probably not even close. You have at least six (maybe eight depending on how you feel about New England and Atlanta United) teams capable of winning MLS Cup. If those six teams were in the West, they would likely be favorites against everyone but LAFC.

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