Your Friday Kickoff: Is the Eastern Conference Orlando’s to lose?

What you need to know

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The path is clear for Orlando City

With the international break at hand, we figured we’d take a look at each remaining playoff team and gauge their hopes of winning an MLS Cup. We’ll go from lowest seed to highest seed, starting with the East. Yesterday, New York City FC. Today, Orlando City SC.

The path behind

The Lions literally got dragged into the Conference Semifinals. The latest possible penalty against Charlotte gave them an equalizer in Game 3 and a lifeline. They won the penalty shootout, crawled out from the wreckage, looked around and realized that their biggest challengers in the East had all disappeared.

They were far from perfect in the final two games against Charlotte - their lone goal in 180 minutes came on a rebound following that penalty - but don’t forget, they were by far and away the better side in Game 1 and one of the best sides in MLS over the second half of the season. Over their final 17 games, Orlando averaged 2.06 points per game. Only Miami and Seattle were better over that span.

Of course, the Lions went on a big second-half run last year, too. That one always felt like smoke and mirrors, though. They were overperforming their underlying numbers by a comical amount and never really looked like a genuine product. Impressive numbers accompany this year’s second-half run. Over their final 17 games, Orlando averaged 1.73 expected points per game, according to American Soccer Analysis. That’s tied with Columbus for the second-best mark in the league over that span.

The path ahead

Now, Orlando has been gifted an opportunity straight from their wildest dreams. With Miami, Columbus and Cincinnati gone, the Lions are the top seed in the East. They’re hosting the Conference Semifinal and would host the Conference Final. In MLS, that means everything. They’re the outright favorite in the East to get to MLS Cup now.

First though, they have to get past an Atlanta United side that just took down Miami. To get a shot at them in the first place, Atlanta needed to take down Orlando on Decision Day. The Five Stripes won that one 2-1 in Orlando. The Lions haven’t beaten Atlanta this year.

Then they’d need to take down one of the New Yorks. They haven’t done that this season either. It’s not as recent as their result against Atlanta, but Orlando went 0W-2L-2D against the New York sides. If they make it to MLS Cup, they’ll have to win two games against teams they’ve yet to beat in four tries.

Can they do it?

They can always change that trend, though. Or they can make it through on penalties a couple more times. It really comes down to whether or not they can find the back of the net. We know they’re going to get the job done defensively. It’s an Oscar Pareja side. They’ll come out in a 4-2-3-1, and both teams will probably try to drag the game into the mud. But coming out clean on the other side is obviously going to be a lot easier if they’re generating consistent chances.

That likely depends on what kind of output they’re getting from Martín Ojeda as a No. 10 and what decisions they make at striker. They’ve been leaning on Ramiro Enrique as their starting No. 9 since just before Leagues Cup and there’s no reason to expect that to change. How they deploy Duncan McGuire and DP attacker Luis Muriel later in these matches feels critical though. If Enrique isn’t clicking and DP Facundo Torres isn’t getting the job done, it will be up to Orlando’s super subs to save the day.

It’s not a bad bet that they can. Orlando don't have multiple elite pieces going forward, but they do have a collection of very good attackers that they can interchange as needed. Even in the grindiest of games, they can find a way to make something happen. If that collection is getting the job done, they can beat any team on any day.

Why won’t they do it?

It took a long time for Orlando to take down a playoff team. Like a long time. Their first win against a playoff team came against Charlotte on Sept. 18. Their second win against a playoff team came against FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5. And that’s it. Their third win against a playoff team came in the actual playoffs, once again against Charlotte.

They’ve been in great form since the second half of the season began. But there are signs that their strength of schedule may have been doing some heavy lifting there. Now, they have to go up against teams they haven’t beaten all year. And two of those teams are primed to take a similar approach to Charlotte. Atlanta and the Red Bulls will be happy to sit deeper and counter. The Lions will have to figure something out in attack against a lower block. Are they going to be able to find enough opportunities in attack to stay out in front?

What will decide whether or not they do it?

Can they change the game state early and force teams to come out and try to play against them?
If it’s not Facundo Torres stepping up in attack early on in games, who is it?
Can Martín Ojeda be the creative force Orlando need?
Are they going to get good Pedro Gallese in goal or bad Pedro Gallese?
If this is just ugly grindball, can they catch a break or two like they did against Charlotte?
Will having a home-field advantage in the next two rounds make all the difference?

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