Decision Day tomorrow
The Eastern Conference games start at 6 pm ET. The Western Conference games start at 9 pm ET. It’s going to be a mess in the best possible way. Check the full schedule here.
MLS NEXT Pro Final is on Sunday
In their own words, check out how Columbus Crew 2 and Austin FC II are approaching the match.
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Decision Day always does exactly what it’s designed to do. It gives us as much clutter and chaos as possible over a two-hour window for each conference and then, suddenly, the dust clears and the standings are set in place for eternity. It’s kind of beautiful in a way. However, some possible timelines on Saturday are more beautiful (in a Daily Kickoff “lol wouldn’t it be funny” kind of way) than others. Let me lay it out for you…
How do you ratchet up the anxiety in the already anxiety-laden postseason? You toss in the added stakes of potentially handing your rival an argument ender. Argument enders are brutal in the sports world. They have a long shelf life too. For example, when North Carolina beat Duke in the Final Four of the NCAA tournament a couple of years back, they were gifted one of the great argument enders in sports history. They’ll be able to respond to any criticism or dismissal from their biggest rival with “Still mad about that Final Four smh” for a decade, and it will hand them an instant KO by sports fight standards.
As someone whose favorite baseball team just lost in the playoffs to their biggest rival for the second straight year, trust me, it’s basically like dying. Even if said team won a championship only two years ago and said rival hasn’t won one since the Bush administration.
Anyway, there’s a Decision Day timeline here that’s full of multiple rivalry matchups in the first round. IF…
Atlanta United draw or lose to FC Cincinnati AND Nashville beats the Red Bulls, then we get an Atlanta United-Orlando City matchup in Round One that will be as delightfully toxic as ever. Honestly, it might be the spark that rivalry needs. To be real, though, it’s kind of quiet in the East. NYCFC totally bricked a chance at Hudson River Derby Wild Card matchup. The good news is, we can really ratchet things up in the West. IF…
Sporting KC beats Minnesota United AND one of San Jose, Portland or Dallas lose or draw, THEN we get a Wild Card matchup featuring SKC that might lead to a St. Louis-SKC matchup in Round One. Even better, it’s possible on the same timeline Portland stay in seventh place and Seattle leap to second, creating a second Round One derby.
There’s also an alternate scenario where we get second-seeded Houston taking on seventh-seeded Dallas, but it’s a little less plausible.
As much of a mess as the West has been this season, the race for the Wild Card spots ended up being kind of straightforward. Meanwhile, the Wild Card-hopeful teams in the East have been trading turns leaping off a diving board into a swimming pool with no water. No one seems all that interested in actually earning one of the final spots in the postseason. That’s how we ended up with D.C. United above the playoff line while simultaneously being eliminated from the playoffs. It only seems appropriate they finish off the regular season with one last collective Triple Lindy into the concrete. IF…
CF Montréal lose to Columbus AND the Red Bulls draw with Nashville AND Chicago draw with NYCFC OR NYCFC beat Chicago AND Charlotte draw with Inter Miami, THEN the final two spots in the East will belong to whatever two teams win the tiebreakers between four teams tied on 41 points. In this case, it would be Montréal and the Red Bulls sneaking in.
But let’s not ignore an equally funny scenario where everyone in that group lose but NYCFC. At that point, NYCFC jump into the last Wild Card spot with just nine wins on the season and negative goal differential. They’d take on a Montréal team with a -16 goal differential or worse.
Perhaps the best dark humor scenario on Saturday comes to us via the matchup between 10th-place SKC and 11th-place Minnesota. They need to win that game and then get one of Portland, FC Dallas or San Jose to draw. Based on the tiebreakers, the winner of Minnesota-SKC would be in. All it takes is just one draw. Considering the way Dallas and San Jose have played lately and the general nature of MLS, one of those teams slipping up feels highly likely. But…what if they don’t? Dallas, San Jose and Portland suddenly getting it together at the same time and pulling out three separate wins would be a brutal end to the season for SKC or Minnesota.
Of course, there’s an even meaner version of this one…
IF…
Portland lose to Houston AND Dallas lose to Colorado AND San Jose lose to Austin AND Sporting KC and Minnesota draw THEN neither SKC or Minnesota makes it in.
Just imagine a late equalizer from either team. Maybe the team in the lead should test the whole “Midwest Nice” thing and ask real politely if the other team can just let them have this one?
- Casey Dunau picked out five under-the-radar storylines fans need to track.
- The New York Red Bulls are awaiting a Decision Day "dog fight."
- NYCFC and Chicago know it’s win or go home on Saturday.
- Here’s who can clinch playoffs or be eliminated and where every team can finish on Decision Day.
- Matt Doyle looked at what might define Decision Day.
Good luck out there. Stay prepared.
