You may not have noticed, but across all major American sports, 2019 was a heck of a year for teams that failed to reach their respective postseasons in 2018.
Both the St. Louis Blues and Washington Senators strolled right up to the trophy podium to raise the big prize to the sky in elation after missing the playoffs altogether the prior season. This phoenix rising act is actually not an uncommon occurrence in Major League Baseball, as nine of the last 13 World Series winners pulled off the trick of going directly from postseason spectators to league champs.
However, this kind of thing doesn't happen often in MLS. Only four teams in league history — the 2015 Portland Timbers, the 2010 Colorado Rapids, the 2001 San Jose Earthquakes and the 2000 Kansas City Wizards (now Sporting KC) —have managed such a peculiar feat.
A look at the Supporters' Shield standings right now, though, suggests there is a decent shot that a fifth team could be added to that list in 2020. Three of the top six teams in the current standings missed the post season 12 months ago, including current leaders the Columbus Crew. The other two, Sporting KC and Orlando City meet on Wednesday night (7:30 pm ET | TV and streaming)
Surely by know you know what's coming, so let's just get to it. We've ranked all 10 clubs that were forced to sit out the Audi 2019 MLS Playoffs by their chances to become the next team to perform this magic trick, going from least to most likely.
10. San Jose Earthquakes
Is placing the Quakes last on this list overly harsh? Probably not as things stand. While Matias Almeyda's tactics can be wildly entertaining, they've also become far too easy to rip apart. San Jose have conceded three goals or more in five of their last eight games, and four of those drubbings have come courtesy of West powers Portland, Seattle, LAFC and Minnesota United. As long as the top teams in your conference continue shredding them on the regular, hope is for other clubs.
The news isn't much better in attack. San Jose have mustered just three run-of-play goals in the last 571 minutes, and one of those was stoppage-time consolation in a 5-1 loss. So yeah, right now the Quakes are a bundle of problems in search of answers and they can't even train properly due to poor air quality in the Bay Area. I can't imagine things will get much better any time soon.
9. FC Cincinnati
They say defense wins championships, and in this regard there is some reason for Orange-and-Blue fans to be mildly optimistic. Jaap Stam's boys came within a missed sitter of sending eventual MLS is Back champs Portland home in the Round of 16, and they've now posted six clean sheets in their last 10 games. Yes, five of those shutouts came against struggling sides, but this is obviously a major improvement over last year's perpetually leaky expansion outfit.
Now comes the part where we rain on their parade. While stinginess opens up advancement possibilities in a tournament setting, teams still need to score goals to reach the playoffs. FC Cincinnati have yet to prove they can do that consistently, being shut out themselves in five of seven. Even with 10 Eastern clubs qualifying for the postseason, any real title ambitions must be sternly tempered until the offense blooms.
8. Vancouver Whitecaps
Yes, the Whitecaps have won three of four. It's also true they are spoiled for striker talent like few teams in the league. The locals are surely enjoying the revelatory runs of form from rookie shot-stopper Thomas Hasal and long-overlooked midfield engine Michael Baldisimo. Of course, Ali Adnan is a Best XI-caliber performer at left back. There's certainly more for fans to hang hats on than there was last season.
And yet, it's difficult to build too much optimism when the Caps can't limit opposition chances, which is a big problem when they also can't hang on to the ball. Meanwhile, two of their top chance creators have departed, which hurts especially bad when the gang can't seem to shoot straight. In Saturday's win over a sinking Real Salt Lake side, Vancouver were outshot 25-8 while ceding over 63 percent of the ball despite playing up a man for about a half an hour. Last Wednesday, they topped Montreal largely thanks to a silly 37th-minute red card tantrum from Rudy Camacho. Reliance on these sorts of results is simply not sustainable.
7. Chicago Fire FC
It may seem rather odd to put a side currently looking up at the entire table ahead of three clubs, but hear me out. Because of all the offseason turnover (seven new regular contributors and a new head coach), I'm willing to excuse their twice-interrupted 1-4-1 start to the season. And while Chicago are currently suffering a five-game win drought (0-3-2), one can argue they were only outplayed once. In fact, they've put up an 8.5-4.5 expected goals edge over their last three games and pocketed only one point.
What I'm trying to say is (knock on Soldier Field wood) things can only get better in Chi-Town. We got used to the sore-luck Fire outplaying their results last season, but it's just getting silly now. More importantly, help is on the way. Play-driving striker CJ Sapong is back after his wife gave birth. A backline in need of reinforcement should finally get to add August signing Carlos Teran now that his home country of Colombia is lifting travel restrictions. The club has also been linked with a move for Slovenia defender Nemanja Mitrovic. I'm not saying Chicago are an authentic contender in hiding, but do remember who warned you if they start turning things around down the stretch.
6. Houston Dynamo
There are valid arguments for sliding the Dynamo a little lower or a little higher on this list. In one regard, Houston just waved goodbye to star man Alberth Elis, top gun Mauro Manotas is battling injury and firing blanks (a career-low 1.8 shots per game with but one goal since opening day) and the defense remains prone to bad breakdowns.
On the other hand, the team seems to have a fresh mentality under new boss Tab Ramos, Darwin Quintero is back to being a complete terror in the final third and Houston are deeper in the attacking half of the field than they've been in years even with the loss of Elis. Still, for my money, they're probably an impact center back with some speed away from being a genuine dark horse.
5. Montreal Impact
You've really got to hand it to Montreal. Though head coach Thierry Henry now looks to have settled on a 4-2-3-1 set, the boss had his charges run out in (by my count) six different formations over their first couple of months worth of 2020 action. In a very real way, the Impact go without a textbook player at both the No. 10 and lead striker positions. They also have one of the most hospitable defenses, which goes a long way toward explaining how they're third from the bottom of MLS in expected goal difference.
Despite it all, the Impact are a hair below break-even and five points above the playoff line. Montreal have basically been "heart and soul-ing" their way to wins. They have a legit central midfield crew (even if Henry should stop trying to be so clever in how he arranges them), a netminder capable of bailing out the defense and no shortage of wing/support forward threats. They're an incomplete side that looks unable to mount an actual title run, but still could prove to be a playoff spoiler.
4. Colorado Rapids
Make no mistake, trading away Kei Kamara has lowered Colorado's chance to stun everyone with a deep playoff run in 2020.
He was their most reliable marksman and a big part of what has often been a frightening set-piece corps. The Rapids still have enough on board to reach the postseason without him, but any overly wishful sorts expecting much more should prepare for disappointment.
Though it has improved this month, Colorado's defense has often underwhelmed this season. Their evolving attack has been pretty solid overall, while at the same time also being quite wasteful. The Rapids have shown the ability to routinely lean on opponents (tops in the league in shots per game and fifth in possession), which helps explain the amazing factoid that they hold the third-best expected goals differential. They're troublesome alright, but presumably not enough to make it all the way to MLS Cup.
3. Sporting Kansas City
This is a tough team to figure out. Sporting KC are as streaky as it gets. Parts of their formation lack speed, while other parts will blow your doors off. They don't horde the ball as much as in recent seasons, but still are among the top offensive teams. The defense has rallied from a rough 2019, greatly limited the amount of shots that Tim Melia faces, but are error-prone enough that those chances are often of the more high-danger variety (witness the facepalm winner handed to FC Dallas this past weekend).
Add it all together and what do you have? The hell if we can know for sure; Sporting KC haven't played up to their second in the West status thus far, but would anyone really be gobsmacked if they reached the Conference Championship? Make it that far and anything can happen — this is MLS, after all. That said, I'd not go placing any title bets on Peter Vermes' battlers.
2. Orlando City SC
At last, we've finally reached a club I would personally categorize as a proper dark horse-level contender. As I detailed the other day, Orlando City haven't simply been riding a wave of fortune to where they stand today. They aren't fourth in both goal differential and points per game by accident.
No, this is a new breed of Lions. They have become soundly strong on each line and in goal for the first time in their short club history, while still maintaining a flair for the dramatic. They are now balanced and consistent, and showed this summer this new face extends to knockout situations. And the bad news for the rest of the league is Orlando City probably haven’t hit their ceiling yet. Asking them to fight for the crown this year may be too soon, but not by all that much.
1. Columbus Crew SC
And finally, we've reached the one 2019 playoff outsider that should rightfully be classified as one of the top contenders to take home MLS Cup in December. Caleb Porter's Crew know who they are, know what they want to do and execute well. Major League Soccer teams don't run up 8-1-3 records with a 20-4 (!!) goals advantage without that menacing soccer team hat trick.
Wrestling a hungry bear might be easier than finding a weak spot in this squad. They suffer absences that would hamstring other clubs, laugh them off and efficiently carry on toward a playoff return (if not also a whole lot of home-field advantage to go with it). There's only one thing I can think of that could drop them out of this particular top spot and that's an extended layoff of some sort for strike ace Gyasi Zardes ... who happens to be one of the most durable players in the league.
