The Audi 2022 MLS Cup Playoff races, across both the Eastern Conference and Western Conference, are crowded right now.
Out East, 10 teams are sitting between 1.16 and 1.48 points per game. Out West, seven more are sitting in roughly that same range. The top places seem largely secure, then it’s a wide-open field.
Heading into Week 26, some teams look like more probable playoff teams than others – at least based on the numbers. Today, we’re taking a data-driven dive into the Eastern Conference playoff race to look at which teams will and won’t sneak into the playoffs. Next week, we’ll do the same with the Western Conference.
Let’s walk through each bubble team in the East, starting with sixth-place Orlando City SC and working our way down from there.
- Place: 6th in East (33 points; 1.32 ppg)
- Games remaining: 9
- Odds of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: 37%
It’s been a tough year for Orlando City, filled with underperformance relative to expectations. After signing Facundo Torres and Ercan Kara in the offseason, Orlando were supposed to be an attacking force in MLS this year. Instead, they’re all the way down in 26th in the league in open-play expected goals per 90 minutes.
They’re not creating enough chances in possession and their defense isn’t strong enough to cover for their lack of attacking output. Could things turn around? Sure. FiveThirtyEight still likes their chances of making the postseason more than most of the other bubble teams. But right now, things don’t look great for Orlando.
Verdict: No playoffs
- Place: 7th in East (33 points; 1.32 ppg)
- Games remaining: 9
- Odds of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: 39%
Inter Miami are hanging onto the seventh spot in the East right now – and they’re on a strong run of form. Miami have only lost once in their last six games. The numbers don’t love Inter Miami, but they do like them over the last month or so. Since July 1, Phil Neville’s team ranks eighth in MLS in xG difference per 96 minutes, according to American Soccer Analysis.
They’ve been a much-improved team over the summer, bringing in former MVP Alejandro Pozuelo as their No. 10. Still, even with a string of better results, I’m worried that there might be teams with more talent than Miami towards the bottom of the East
Verdict: No playoffs
- Place: 8th in East (33 points; 1.38 ppg)
- Games remaining: 10
- Odds of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: 62%
FiveThirtyEight loves the Revs. At least some of that comes down to their points per game and their game in hand on everybody but Atlanta United in the playoff race. The numbers like New England, too. Well, I should say the shot-stopping numbers like New England, too.
Per FBref, Revolution goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic has been the best shot-stopper in MLS this year by a giant margin. Petrovic leads MLS in post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes with +0.65. That means he’s saving the Revs two-thirds of a goal per game over the expected rate, which is absolutely insane. With a goalkeeper like that replacing the outbound Matt Turner, I’m not betting against the defending Supporters’ Shield champs right now.
Verdict: Playoffs
- Place: 9th in East (33 points; 1.32 ppg)
- Games remaining: 9
- Odds of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: 36%
It feels like FC Cincinnati are oh-so-close to getting over the hump this year. I’ve been banging the “Cincy are a playoff team” drum for months now, but now when it comes time to actually write it, I’m just not sure. Pat Noonan’s team has won just one of their last nine games (1W-1L-7D). Despite a positive xG difference, they’re not earning three points regularly.
Cincy also aren’t a great defensive team. They give up the seventh most non-penalty xG per 90 minutes, according to Second Spectrum. Deadline-day center back signing Matt Miazga should help fix that problem, but until there’s visible defensive change, it’s difficult to justify putting them above the playoff line.
Verdict: No playoffs
- Place: 10th in East (30 points; 1.2 ppg)
- Games remaining: 9
- Odds of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: 23%
What a run for Chicago, huh? After hanging out in the East’s basement for months, the Fire have four wins in their last six games (4W-1L-1D) and have a shot at the postseason.
Even with some quality results, the numbers don’t find much joy in the Chicago Fire. According to American Soccer Analysis, the Fire are 18th in the league in xG difference per game since July 1. That number makes me think that Chicago are outperforming their expected stats at an unsustainable level. Maybe Xherdan Shaqiri and Co. prove me wrong. But for now…
Verdict: No playoffs
- Place: 11th in East (29 points; 1.16 ppg)
- Games remaining: 9
- Odds of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: 7%
This one isn’t going to happen. I’m sorry, Charlotte FC fans. I just can’t see any real hope for your team making the playoffs as an expansion side. They’re 26th in the league in xG difference per game since July 1, per American Soccer Analysis. Charlotte have been okay defensively in 2022, but they don’t create nearly enough in the attack.
They’re second-to-last in the league in non-penalty xG per 90 minutes with 0.87, according to Second Spectrum. Until someone other than Karol Swiderski and Andre Shinyashiki hop on the goalscoring train, Charlotte aren’t likely to do much climbing out East.
Verdict: No playoffs
- Place: 12th (29 points; 1.16 ppg)
- Games remaining: 9
- Odds of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: 13%
Well, well, well, look what we have here. It’s still a little too early in The Great Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi Experiment to go all-in on Toronto FC, but I’m doing it anyway.
Before Bob Bradley’s two Italian stars started playing up in Toronto, the Reds were 24th in the league in open-play xG per 90 minutes, as per Second Spectrum. Since their new DP wingers arrived, Toronto FC are fifth in that same metric. They’re creating lots of chances and they’re scoring lots of goals, too.
According to American Soccer Analysis, Toronto FC are second in the league in xG difference per game since Insigne and Bernardeschi entered the starting lineup. That’s not a large enough sample size to be truly indicative of much, but it’s a large enough sample size for me to do something crazy and put the team that’s currently in 12th place in the East into the postseason.
Verdict: Playoffs
- Place: 13th in East (29 points; 1.21 ppg)
- Games remaining: 10
- Odds of making the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight: 25%
Atlanta United aren’t a bad team, but I’m also not sure they’re a good team. Per FBref, their xG differential per 90 minutes is sitting right at 0.00. They’re not creating more chances than they’re conceding and they’re not conceding more chances than they’re creating. They’re just…there.
With all of the injuries that Gonzalo Pineda has dealt with this year, it might be too little, too late for Atlanta United’s playoff hopes in 2022.
Verdict: No playoffs
