So, you lost your first Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs game…
Is it ideal? Nope. Is it fatal? Lucky for you, the answer to that question is also “nope.” With the Round One Best-of-3 Series format, even teams that struggled in their playoff openers still have a chance to set things right.
Don’t get me wrong: climbing out of the hole is difficult. Last year, with the expanded Round One format, every team that won their first game ended up winning their series. Teams that fail to win right out of the gates are fighting against the odds. But the odds of advancing after a Game 1 defeat aren’t zero – and the odds of winning in Game 2 to force a Game 3 certainly aren’t zero, either.
Today, we’re ranking all eight teams who are down 1-0 to determine which have the best chance of extending their season.
- Game 1: Columbus 0-1 New York
- Game 2: Sunday, 4:30 pm ET | Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
The Red Bulls deserve a ton of credit for their Game 1 defensive effort, which fueled an upset over Columbus. Sandro Schwarz’s team matched Wilfried Nancy’s 3-4-3 shape, pressed man-to-man high up the field, and forced the Crew away from dangerous attacking areas. As the game wore on, the Red Bulls established their 5-4-1 low block and trapped the Crew into hitting a season-high number of crosses.
New York played a great game. The real trick will be to do it again.
Columbus have been so good under Nancy, in no small part because they identify and expose weaknesses in the opposition quicker than basically any other team in the league. You can bet their coaching staff will be in the film room watching tape before coming out with an altered game plan built to maximize Cucho Hernández’s brilliance in the final third. Their backs are against the wall, but Columbus are a solid bet to claw back into this series.
- Game 1: RSL 0 (4) - 0 (5) Minnesota
- Game 2: Saturday, 9 pm ET | Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
The margin between Minnesota and RSL was oh-so-narrow in Game 1, with the two teams creating a nearly even number of shots and xG in the 0-0 deadlock that had to be decided in penalties.
RSL’s attack looks like a shell of what it was before Andrés Gómez’s big-money move to Ligue 1. Still, their possession serves as a great defensive mechanism, which made Minnesota’s life difficult in Game 1 and will do so again in Game 2. Getting Brayan Vera back from suspension and into central defense should help Salt Lake deal with Minnesota's attack, too.
There didn’t appear to be much separating these two teams before the series started. There still doesn’t appear to be much separating them now. RSL have a real chance to force a Game 3.
- Game 1: Orlando 2-0 Charlotte
- Game 2: Friday, 7:30 pm ET | Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
Sure, Charlotte were second-best at Orlando. But cleaning up a few little things will go a long way towards a more successful result at home.
If Charlotte’s backline and central midfielders better track Orlando's runners inside the box, Dean Smith’s squad will take some unwanted pressure off goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina. They can’t afford to give Facundo Torres and Martín Ojeda big pockets of space to exploit right in front of the back four. Being just a little cleaner in attacking transition will help, too.
Losing Pep Biel to a red card suspension hurts, but it’s not hard to picture Charlotte evening the series in Game 2.
- Game 1: Cincinnati 1-0 New York City
- Game 2: Saturday, 5 pm ET | Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
Coming into this series, it didn’t seem like much separated NYCFC and Cincy. They entered the playoffs with nearly identical expected goal differentials and had beaten each other in the last couple of months.
After Monday night’s result, it looks like more separated them than we might have thought. While they only lost by a single goal, NYCFC were thoroughly beaten on the road. Nick Cushing’s team lost the xG battle by a wider margin than any other team in Round One so far – yes, that means they lost the xG battle by more than the Colorado Rapids did against the LA Galaxy in their 5-0 drubbing.
Cushing opted for a conservative lineup with Andrés Perea on the left wing. Despite his best intentions, that lineup did very little to slow Luciano Acosta & Co. It’s far from over for NYCFC, but it is back to the drawing board.
- Game 1: Seattle 0 (5) - 0 (4) Houston
- Game 2: Sunday, 6:30 pm ET | Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
If this piece had gone live partway through the second half of Houston's eventual penalty shootout loss at Seattle, there’s a real chance the Dynamo would’ve been on top of this list.
… And then Coco Carrasquilla picked up a silly red card that sees Houston robbed of their best central playmaker for Game 2. For an attack that already struggles to create meaningful chances against solid defensive blocks, losing Carrasquilla is a massive blow. Among Houston players with at least 1,000 minutes in the regular season, the Panamanian finished third in expected assisted goals per 90 minutes, according to FBref.
Without Carrasquilla, Houston face a long 90 minutes. Against the best defense in MLS based on both goals and xG allowed in the regular season, I’m not ready to bet on them.
- Game 1: LAFC 2-1 Vancouver
- Game 2: Sunday, 8:45 pm ET | Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
For a moment, it seemed LAFC would be fighting for a Game 3 rather than Vancouver. After Stuart Armstrong played a lovely through ball to Brian White, the 'Caps had a golden chance to take a 1-0 lead at BMO Stadium.
But White’s shot clanged off the woodwork, LAFC pushed into the lead, and Vancouver never quite got back into the game.
With how sharp they were against Portland in the Wild Card round and how well they played for stretches of Game 1 at LAFC, the 'Caps can make a legitimate argument that they deserve to be higher on this list. Armstrong looks like a legitimate game-changer in his hybrid left-sided central midfielder/left halfspace role. The trouble for Vancouver, however, is two-fold:
- Armstrong still doesn’t seem fit enough to play more than 65 minutes.
- LAFC are really, really good.
If the Scottish international had arrived before September, or if the Whitecaps were up against a less formidable foe, I’d like their chances a whole lot more.
- Game 1: Miami 2-1 Atlanta
- Game 2: Saturday, 7 pm ET | Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
Thanks to a heroic performance from Brad Guzan, Atlanta had a fighting chance against Inter Miami in Game 1. The 40-year-old is enjoying a resurgent campaign, where he saved 4.4 goals above expected in the regular season, according to FBref.
Even with Guzan’s heroics, Atlanta suffered a 2-1 loss. Sure, Atlanta went unbeaten against Miami in the regular season, but there’s too much working against them now. Let’s run through the list of issues, shall we?
- Two starting defenders, Brooks Lennon and Stian Gregersen, went down injured in Game 1 and may not be fully healthy for Game 2.
- Alexey Miranchuk is yet to look anything like a $13 million signing; he was subbed off at halftime in Game 1.
- Inter Miami are the scariest team in MLS history.
Maybe Guzan bails them out again. Maybe Pedro Amador and Saba Lobjanidze make more magic in the attack. But color me skeptical when it comes to Atlanta United forcing a Game 3.
- Game 1: LA 5-0 Colorado
- Game 2: Friday, 9:30 pm ET | Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
Sorry, Colorado. I just can’t see you clawing back into your series with LA after getting trounced 5-0 on Saturday.
Without Cole Bassett and Djordje Mihailovic, the Rapids took just one shot (1!) on the road in Carson. Given the continued concerns surrounding the health of those two midfielders – who have been the best attackers at Chris Armas’ disposal all year – it’s difficult to picture the Rapids clawing back in Game 2. To really threaten the Galaxy, you must either be one of the absolute best defensive teams in the league or have enough attacking threat to go toe-to-toe.
Unfortunately for the Rapids, they come up empty on both fronts.
Between losing Moïse Bombito in the summer transfer window and having two crucial starters not be at full strength, the stars haven’t aligned for a deep playoff run. Or, you know what, forget the deep playoff run. The stars haven’t aligned for a quality Round One showing, either.
