As Toronto FC prepare for their Eastern Conference Championship against Canadian rivals Montreal Impact, all eyes are on Sebastian Giovinco following his hat-trick against New York City FC. However, he is not the only player who has grabbed headlines for Toronto during this playoff run, as Homegrown midfielder Jonathan Osorio has turned a few heads with three goals in his last four matches.
To understand just how Osorio’s role with Toronto FC has developed over the course of the season it is worth going back to Giovinco’s injury in late August, just as the team were looking primed to make a Supporters' Shield run. The injury was a major blow as Toronto’s attack suffered and the team ultimately fell out of the race for the Shield.
Using Expected Goals (xG) we can look at the quality of chances Toronto were creating before, during and after Giovinco’s injury.
xG measures chance quality and how likely a particular shot is to result in a goal based on distance to the goal, angle to the goal, whether or not it was a header, whether or not it was assisted and a variety of other factors. What makes xG so useful is that a team’s xG is actually a better indicator of future goals than goals themselves, so often these numbers give us insight into a team’s "true form."
The following table looks at Toronto’s xG per game before Giovinco’s injury on Aug. 27, during his absence from the team and following his return on Oct. 16.
Toronto’s xG per game was significantly lower during Giovinco’s injury, but since this return this number has jumped to an incredible 2.23 xG per game. However, the struggles during Giovinco’s injury absence may have actually contributed to his – and the team’s – red-hot form during the playoffs.
One of the major impacts of the injury was that it forced Toronto into several changes, one of which revolved around the positioning and role of Osorio. The touch map below (with Toronto attacking left to right) measures the location all of Osorio’s on-ball actions (shots, passes, take-ons, etc.) up to Aug. 27. The darker the area on the touch map, the more actions Osorio recorded in that part of the field.
During this period Osorio was clearly covering a lot of ground in both attacking and defensive areas, mainly on the left side of midfield. After the injury to Giovinco, Osorio was shifted to the center of the pitch, playing in a more classic No. 10 role behind the two strikers (typically a combination of Jozy Altidore, Mo Babouli, Tosaint Ricketts and Jordan Hamilton).
With Giovinco out of the lineup, Osorio played both a much more attacking and central role. Despite Toronto’s overall drop-off in expected goals, Osorio helped keep the team afloat, picking up a couple of assists and a goal in the five matches he started.
Now that the Atomic Ant is back, the expectation was that head coach Greg Vanney would return to what was working for his team prior to the injury, with Osorio as either a left or center-left midfielder. While that's often been the case, it's clear Osorio's time in the middle is carrying over now that Giovinco is back on the field.
Since Toronto's move to a 5-3-2 or 3-5-2, depending on the phase of the game, Osorio's returned to a more left-centric role, but he's still found a way to connect with the front two and get into the attacking third. And since that front two now includes the reigning MLS MVP to compliment Altidore, TFC have been excellent going forward, scoring an incredible 15 goals in their past five matches.
Both Giovinco and Osorio have seen their attacking output improve significantly. Comparing their xG per 90-minute numbers before and after the injury, the difference in chance creation is clear.
Heading into Montreal it doesn’t seem like Vanney has any doubts about where Osorio will play. He may not be a traditional, Mauro Diaz-style No. 10, but in this case he doesn't need to be. The injury to Giovinco opened the door for a bit of innovation from the manager, and it seems like Vanney has done just that to get even more out of both the superstar Italian and the Toronto-born midfielder.
