One stat that will decide Conference Semifinals

If you, dear reader, want to have a batch of smart observations ready to fire off into the group chat as you watch this weekend’s Audi MLS Cup Playoffs action, I have the column for you.

As we approach the Conference Semifinals, I’m examining one stat that could decide the postseason fate of all eight remaining teams. These are the numbers – and the on-field factors behind the numbers – to track across the four matches on Saturday and Sunday.

Let’s get to the data, moving through each team in order of the 2024 regular-season standings.

Key stat: 0.15

• Western Conference Semifinal: Nov. 23 vs. Seattle Sounders FC (10:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

Since arriving in the summer, things haven’t gone swimmingly for Olivier Giroud. The veteran striker averaged just 0.15 xG per 90 minutes across his 10 regular-season appearances, according to FBref, which put him in just the fourth percentile among strikers. The disconnect between Giroud and his teammates has been so great that manager Steve Cherundolo opted to put the World Cup winner on the bench for LAFC’s series decider against the Vancouver Whitecaps in Round One.

If LAFC can start playing through Giroud, rather than around him, it gets easier and easier to see them besting the Sounders. With his big frame, soft first touch, vision, and sharp off-ball movement, Giroud has all the pieces to be a high-functioning member of the LAFC attack. And yet, he’s only 51st among MLS strikers with at least 500 minutes this year in final third touch share, getting just 5.5 of every 100 touches taken by LAFC in that part of the field.

We have more than a decade’s worth of evidence that Giroud can be a game-changer. Will Cherundolo unlock him this weekend?

Key stat: 91.0%

• Western Conference Semifinal: Nov. 24 vs. Minnesota United FC (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass; FS1, FOX Deportes; TSN, RDS)

Beware: tiny sample sizes lie ahead. Okay, now that we have that boring caveat officially out of the way…

The LA Galaxy dominated a banged-up Colorado Rapids team in Round One of this year’s playoffs. That’s not an accomplishment to go on and on about. Still, the ruthlessness with which Greg Vanney’s team dispatched their first playoff foe was impressive. One of the major ways that ruthlessness showed itself in their two-game sweep was in the Galaxy’s on-ball sharpness. They averaged a 91.0% passing completion rate in the defensive and middle thirds of the field, the best of any team in Round One.

That mark is also nearly 2% higher than their regular-season completion rate in the same areas of the field. With a shaky defense, the less the Galaxy cough up the ball in bad spots and leave themselves vulnerable to Minnesota in transition, the better.

Key stat: 1.00

• Western Conference Semifinal: Nov. 23 at LAFC (10:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

Have the Sounders beaten LAFC in any of their last 10 tries? No. But, on paper, do they match up against LAFC about as well as any team can? I think so.

With LAFC’s biggest strength coming in the form of their dangerous transition attacks, Brian Schmetzer’s willingness to drop his team’s line of confrontation and have Seattle absorb pressure should be an asset. According to FBref, the Sounders allowed just 1.00 non-penalty xG per 90 in the regular season, good for the best mark in MLS. They allowed the fewest goals in the league, too.

If Seattle’s 4-4-2 defensive block is tight, both horizontally and vertically, and they’re smart about leaving numbers back even while attacking, Seattle will have a chance this weekend.

Key stat: 9.36

• Eastern Conference Semifinal: Nov. 24 vs. Atlanta United (3:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

If I’m Oscar Pareja, I’ve spent the last week or so forwarding clips just like this one to Iván Angulo:

Now that Saba Lobjanidze has become a right wingback for Atlanta United – and is still very, very green on the defensive end – there will be ample opportunities for Orlando City’s left winger to blitz the Georgian international. Look at how high up the field Lobjanidze is as the ball turns over in the above clip. All that green grass is just begging to be exploited.

Even without a vulnerable defender on the right side of the opposition’s backline, Orlando City have been effective down the left this year. According to American Soccer Analysis’ goals added metric, which assigns a value to every on-ball action, Orlando created 9.36 goals added on the left side of the attacking half in the regular season. That’s more than all but four other teams in the league. The left side will be ready to feast against Atlanta.

Key stat: 7.59

• Western Conference Semifinal: Nov. 24 at LA Galaxy (6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass; FS1, FOX Deportes; TSN, RDS)

When you’re running through the list of teams best positioned to stop the LA Galaxy’s seemingly unstoppable attack, Minnesota United’s name might not jump out at you. But maybe it should.

In addition to having the best xG allowed per game mark in MLS since the Secondary Transfer Window closed, based on American Soccer Analysis’ data, the Loons have exercised great defensive control in 2024. According to FBref, they’ve only allowed 7.59 passes into their box per 90 minutes, good for sixth among all 29 teams in the regular season. In their most recent game against Real Salt Lake, Minnesota allowed just three passes into their penalty area – their second-best tally of the year.

Defensive resoluteness is a must against the Galaxy, and Eric Ramsay’s team has plenty of that very thing.

Key stat: 3.33

• Eastern Conference Semifinal: Nov. 23 vs. New York Red Bulls (5:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

Matt Freese stood on his head in Round One against FC Cincinnati. And then he stood there some more. And then he stood there a little while longer.

New York City’s goalkeeper saved 3.33 goals more than expected, which was nearly a goal more than any other shot-stopper in the first round of the postseason. Across the three games NYCFC played against FC Cincinnati, Freese averaged out to save more than a goal over expected in each of them.

The 26-year-old, who finished fifth in the regular season in goals saved over expected based on FBref’s data, could very well hold the keys to his team’s playoff run. As Freese goes, so go New York City.

Key stat: +0.37

• Eastern Conference Semifinal: Nov. 23 at New York City FC (5:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

Their Round One upset over the Columbus Crew sent waves throughout the entire MLS landscape, but maybe – just maybe – the New York Red Bulls really weren’t that much of an underdog. And maybe – just maybe – they’ve got a chance to make history this winter.

The underlying numbers adore the Red Bulls. Sandro Schwarz’s team finished third in the entire league in xG differential this season, according to FBref, with +0.37 per 90. With an elite defense and an attack that seems to have finally found its form (though Lewis Morgan’s latest injury issue is a huge concern), the message for RBNY heading into the Conference Semifinals is simple: don’t change anything. Stick with what’s working because the positive signposts have been there all year.

Key stat: 6.7

• Eastern Conference Semifinal: Nov. 24 at Orlando City SC (3:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

Since Rob Valentino took over as interim manager of Atlanta United, and since a pair of key attackers were sold for big money in the summer without being fully replaced, the Five Stripes have leaned into being a direct transition team. They’ve leaned hard.

During Valentino’s tenure this season, their passes have traveled an average of 6.7 yards toward the opposing goal, painting them as a more vertical team than all but six others in MLS. Under Gonzalo Pineda, they averaged 5.4 vertical yards per pass, good for 21st in MLS.

To keep up their fairytale run, Atlanta should continue leaning into that direct setup: sit deep, limit each game’s total number of shots, and hope the variance gods are on their side.