“One more step,” Orlando City manager Oscar Pareja said of his team advancing to the Eastern Conference Final.
Orlando, the New York Red Bulls, the LA Galaxy, and the Seattle Sounders all took that step this weekend, prevailing in their respective conference semifinals to put themselves just two wins away from lifting the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy. How can these teams make their way to MLS Cup presented by Audi on Dec. 7? Today, I’m digging into what needs to happen on the field for each squad to find success this weekend.
Onwards.
LA Galaxy win if… Gabriel Pec has plenty of touches in the final third
Trying to defend the Galaxy is a lot like trying to plug holes in a leaky boat.
As soon as you manage to stop one leak, another pops wide open. Oh, and in this analogy, there’s an unplugable hole right in the bottom of the boat called Riqui Puig — no matter how you try to defend him, he’ll find a way to punish you. Man-marking, persistent use of cover shadows, quick on-ball pressure, you name it, Puig has beaten it. If I’m game-planning for the Galaxy, I’m not trying to make Puig’s life easy, but I’m also going to accept that the Spaniard will have a certain amount of undeniable influence on every one of their possessions.
My attention, then, turns to Gabriel Pec. The Brazilian has emerged as the secondary playmaker for Greg Vanney’s team this year and has been an absolute menace in the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs. He messed with Lalas Abubakar so badly in Game 2 against the Rapids that Chris Armas had to move his center back to the other side of the field. He destroyed Jefferson Díaz on Sunday, skinning him multiple times, drawing two cards and a penalty, and snagging a brace before the final whistle.
Again, if I’m planning to slow the Galaxy, I’m thinking about how to allocate as many defensive resources to Pec as I can (without, uh, leaving huge gaps around Dejan Joveljić and Joseph Paintsil. Remember the whole leaky boat thing?).
If Pec is getting on the ball a bunch in good spots, that bodes well for the Galaxy’s chances of success. As per FBref, he registered 11 touches in the final third against the Rapids in Game 2 — good for his joint third-highest total of the year — and 10 against Minnesota — good for his joint sixth-highest total of the year. The Sounders will keep things tighter at the back than either of the Galaxy’s two prior playoff foes, but will they stop Pec?
Seattle Sounders win if… They stay compact and committed defensively
It’s the 88th minute of the Seattle Sounders clash with LAFC at BMO Stadium. Brian Schmetzer’s team is taking an 11th bite of the “beat the Black & Gold” apple, hoping to finally steal a victory against the Southern Californian thorn in their side. They would do exactly that, thanks to a Jordan Morris strike in extra time. But to get the game to extra time in the first place, they had to give everything defensively.
So, as the Sounders lose the ball in the 88th minute, they sprint back to recover in time to take away any advantage for LAFC. Thanks to the effort from the Roldan brothers — and a preexisting plus-one in the back against Mateusz Bogusz — they turned an LAFC attack into nothing but wasted time for their hosts.
“The mantra of the Sounders, the mentality of the group, is we never quit. We never give up,” Brian Schmetzer said after the win. “Guys that want to even think about giving up, they're no longer with us. It's just the overall spirit [and] mentality of the group. They understand that coming in.”
Without that mentality in its purest form (and, crucially, the corresponding execution) against the LA Galaxy, Seattle will struggle. Just ask Minnesota United or the Colorado Rapids what happens when you take one play off against the guys from Carson. If the Sounders stay compact in their mid-block, avoid pushing too many numbers into the attack when they have the ball, and stay sharp as a tack in defensive transition, they’ll be in this game.
Whether it’s Jon Bell or Nouhou, the primary left-sided defender for this Sounders team will need to have an elite match, too. I touched on this above, but Pec has ripped his opposites to shreds in the playoffs. If you’re looking for an individual matchup to watch on Saturday to take the game’s temperature, that’s the one.
Orlando City win if… They control second balls
This Orlando City squad is going to present the New York Red Bulls with a very different challenge than either of the ones they’ve faced so far in this year’s playoffs. While Oscar Pareja’s team is perfectly willing to keep the ball, they’re far less inclined to play the kinds of short passes out of the back that the Columbus Crew play. And while they like to play through Facundo Torres and Martín Ojeda in their spine, they’re less likely to be as dedicated to central progression as New York City FC.
Put another way, I expect Orlando City to hit more vertical passes out of the back than short, clean passes in a must-win playoff game against the Red Bulls’ waves of high pressure. Vertical passes are harder to complete, which means the ball ends up taking bounces and ricochets, looking for a new home higher up the field. If the first ball doesn’t find its target, then the focus quickly shifts to controlling the second ball.
You don’t have to look much further than NYCFC’s first concession on Saturday to see just how crucial it is to be ready to outmuscle the Red Bulls. If you let the ball bounce without putting a strong frame around it, bad things can happen. You’re probably not going to concede a goal like this one, but you could concede a shot or a box entry.
But it’s not just about owning those second balls after RBNY blast their way upfield. No, it’s about owning them in every phase. If César Araújo and Wilder Cartagena play to their strengths as one of the most physically-imposing double pivots in MLS, Orlando can go toe-to-toe with their Eastern Conference foes. If those two are sluggish — or if the players around them don’t hit a high-intensity level — Orlando City will leave themselves without the ball, without their defensive shape, and without much success.
New York Red Bulls win if… Emil Forsberg is active
Let’s play a game called “How Many Games Has It Been Since The Red Bulls Had At Least 40 Percent Possession?” Okay, fine, the title isn’t very catchy so I’ll just tell you: the New York Red Bulls haven’t had at least 40 percent possession in any of their last five games. They’ve ranged from 23 to 39.5 percent, but no higher across their final two games of the regular season and their first three playoff matchups.
Interestingly enough, the Red Bulls hit 38.2 and 42.7 percent possession in their two regular-season meetings with Orlando City earlier this year.
Under Sandro Schwarz, they’ve been perfectly content to play against the ball, dropping their line of confrontation at times before picking just the right moment to swarm the ball. I suspect the possession scales will be much more balanced in this game on Saturday (at their core, Orlando don’t want to be a possession-dominant team). Still, one thing is clear: the Red Bulls must maximize their touches whenever and wherever they can find them.
Emil Forsberg was the man brought in over the offseason to help RBNY do just that.
In his role floating underneath Lewis Morgan and Dante Vanzeir, the Swede is Schwarz’s primary playmaker. According to FBref, Forsberg averaged more through balls per 90 (0.60) than any of his teammates and finished second behind Morgan in expected assisted goals per 90 (0.23) among regular starters. Forsberg’s vision and passing technique give Morgan and the rest of the Red Bulls’ off-ball runners confidence that the ball will, in fact, find them.
If Forsberg is firing, the New York Red Bulls will be poised to cause Orlando’s steady defense some real problems.
