Expected goals: Who are MLS's best & worst players in 2022?

With the 2022 campaign winding down, there's now almost a full season's worth of data that paints a pretty clear picture as to the biggest overperformers and underperformers around expected goals.

For context, expected goals (sourced here by Opta) measure the quality of scoring chances by calculating how likely they are to result in a goal. Every chance is measured on a scale from zero (impossible to score) to one (expected to score every time), with on-field position and phase of play also factored in.

With all MLS clubs having played 30-plus games, we crunched the numbers to see what the splits look like for the top-10 most statistically overperforming and underperforming players in 2022 by comparing their actual goal totals against their xG numbers.

xG overperformers - Top 10 players

In terms of xG overperformance, FC Dallas forward Jesús Ferreira and Austin FC midifelder Sebastián Driussi are atop the list.

That's not to take away from their fabulous seasons, mind you. In fact, it's arguably a testament to their ability to finish some lower-quality chances with a higher degree of difficulty.

xG underperformers - Top 10 players

It's hard to know how much of xG underperformance is due to simple bad luck or wayward finishing.

Either way, Atlanta United winger Luiz Araújo and LA Galaxy winger Kévin Cabral both have plenty of reasons to feel frustrated with scoring four-plus fewer goals than the model suggests.

Most xG generated - Top 10

Nashville SC’s Hany Mukhtar, who’s in the Golden Boot presented by Audi lead, is the runaway leader – no surprise considering he’s directly responsible for nearly 70% of his team’s goals this season (goal or assist).

LA striker Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez is close behind him, hitting 17 goals in back-to-back seasons for the Galaxy.